1/2 live game facing weird spot on rainbow paired flop
Posted by lemonlungs
Posted by
lemonlungs
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Low Stakes
1/2 live game facing weird spot on rainbow paired flop
Hey guys, new to RIO here. Have been looking through the NLHE in order to improve myself and have to admit I am not a good player by any means. My thought process isn't as good as I want it to be.
Anyway getting down to business ;
I was at 1/2 live game yesterday , with my stack at close to 280BB and villain at 90BB or so.
Villain is a decent player, rather tight and loves raising his suited connectors or sometimes raising light on the SB/BB with suited cards, J9 to KT off onwards to punish the limpers.
I picked up pocket 9s UTG and I made it $7 to go preflop. One person calls from MP and villain raises on the button to 26. I tanked and decided to make the call as i have seen him do some goofy stuff on the button. The next guy folds.
Flop comes 6h 6c and Td, and now I'm at a loss as I felt checking would leave me powerless as I have a decent hand on this board whereas leading out would means he gets to shove easily considering his stack size. So it was either shove or fold for me. What would you guys do in this spot? And I thought it over and I think the preflop call was not a good play, how could i improve on that?
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Assuming Villain has a more polarized 3-betting range IP, I gave him a value range of 5.6% consisting of {TT+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+}, and 2% bluffing range which is folding to a 4-bet.
1) 5.6/7.6=74% villain is calling/ Assuming we're pot commited to go all-in vs his hand range
Our equity Vs villains value range
99 Vs Villains Value range
39.7% VS 60.3%
2) 2/7.6-=26% Villain is folding
Dead money in Pot: $7+$7(person who called in MP)+$3(blinds)+$26=$43
If we 4-bet to $65=2.5X(Villains raise)
Calculate: (.26)($43)+(.74)($360)(.397)-(.74)($180)(.603)=[$11.18]+[$105.7]-[80.3]=+$36.58EV
With Effective stacks Below 100BB, I'm either folding or 4-betting with a PP hand like 99. actually turning 99 into a bluff by 4-betting is profitable, if under the assumption villain is capable of bluffing IP with his 3-bet range.
So fold or call,check fold (if you don't flop a set)
4-bet and get it in.
You've seen him raise with a lot of hands that he won't get it in with, and like you said, calling and missing puts you in a really gross spot.
Folding is decent, but I wouldn't fold against a guy who we know is perfectly suited to get it in with a little lighter.
It's live poker. Do not ever underestimate their level of stupidity. Just writing this reminds me of like 10 hands where I just shook my head in disbelief. Seeing guys call it off with 73s because ''he might have AK'', or calling it off with K9o because ''it's a cool hand''.
Also, because you get fewer hands, 99 moves up in value a bit.
Yes, what the above guys said..
Thanks all, I realised that it was a really bas play on my part pre flop, but I'm wondering what would you guys have done on the flop. I know it was a bad play to see a flop witjh this guy but considering we do get to the flop, do I shove or check fold here?
Check/ fold
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