10NLZ/FF - flop raise and barrel single raise pot
Posted by craig c
Posted by
craig c
posted in
Low Stakes
10NLZ/FF - flop raise and barrel single raise pot
Villian is a reg - 679 hands 20/17/7 . - hand is 13days old so not fresh, but i still think the turn is a call as the population can fire one street with missed draws. River I'm unsure; 67 got there and he has 55,44 in his range, i feel population under bluffs OTR but I don't block the spades.
Discounting a4&a5s, he has 8 value combos and a 12-15 spade combos 40:60 value:bluff, however i think the population rarely raise flop and double barrel bluff.
what would you do here?
Is my thought process flawed anywher?
given its 60% vs 27% should i call?
If his cbet is 29% are we more likely to see a value heavy range from villian and should easily fold?
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I can't see your hand nor can I see the board cards. Please update your open post.
Maybe try to post a link to your hand on weaktight or take a screenshot of your hand and post that.
not a great spot to be in, but not a bad one. He have so little value hands so I'm calling that not a big size until I know that guy is never bluffs.
I agree with Jeff_. My default play would be to call down. Villain represents narrow value range and the price he's giving you is fairly cheap.
Your thought process is on spot and raise and barrel off or even just 3x barrel on low stakes is rarely a bluff, but this type of aggro/semi aggro reg is a candidate to pull one off.
You can also check more info about the opponent to make your decision easier. Important stats in this spot would be "fold to flop c-bet", "overall bet river" and "aggression frequency/aggression factor".
If fold to c-bet is higher than 45% or overall river bet is below 30%, then you can safely presume he will seldom bluff, but if those stats are different, you be quite sure he'll have some bluffs in his range. Try to combine more stats together to get the overall image of the type of player you're dealing with.
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