[10NLZ] Would you 3barrel bluff this 100% in micros?
Posted by ChaoRen123
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ChaoRen123
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[10NLZ] Would you 3barrel bluff this 100% in micros?
Hi guys, villain is a standard bad regular, 29/20/5 over 800 hands. I have this note on him "min4bet 88 co vs btn, 9Tx checks, J turn check/call, river 9 calls vs 1/3". We have excellent blockers with this hand, so would you always 3barrel against this profile? If he folds all AQ/KQ/AhJx type hands, we already have a profitable shove otr.
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Flop seems fine. He is going to have some folds you don't mind denying equity to, also a bunch of underpair combos that are ahead but unlikely to continue and a draw to the nuts. Range vs Range you will have advantage here but Hand vs Range you are not in great shape, probably like 55/45 or so.
Checking turn here most of the time with this combo. Any card aside from an A, K or T is good for their range and bad for yours. You have the best AxKh to bet but that third heart cuts the combos of his decent draws you can get razor thin value from. If you knew for sure you were up against made hands here, the play has to be check/evaluate turn. He can make the mistake of checking back or offering sick odds where you can outdraw him. Betting turn is much much better with the AhKx here for the obv. reasons but checking it can be good too where they make 2nd best flushes when you make the nuts.
On the river, I don't think he folds often enough to shove here. He is going to have very little air here and even if he folds all TP hands, he is still calling way too often for this to work.
I like your analysis, but I think you are probably wrong on one point: if he does fold AhKx,AQ,KQs, and a few combos of KQo (I put him 30% of them preflop), we already have a profitable shove OTR.
But if he doesn't fold this, this shove becomes pretty bad. Btw, I agree a lot that AhKx is way better to bluff afterwards though.
I guess the question is how often do you win when called. I am assuming he never calls here with something that you beat. I can't think of any hands that call river that you beat. Lets say he misclicks 10% of the time. That means you lose 90% of time when called. Lets say he folds 30% of the time, this would read like this:
(.30)(8.8) + (.10)(.70)(8.8+5.51+5.51) - (.90)(.70)(8.8+5.51+5.51)
(2.64 + 1.39) - (12.49) = -$8.46
I just don't think too many top pairs are going to fold getting the price he is getting on the river. I think some do, but not all. 5.51/(5.51 + 5.51 + 8.8) = 28%. Getting this price, in his shoes, I am calling all my AQ+.
What about the WSD and call 3bet stats? I think they are relevant in the situation.
I am not sure that we have excellent blockers because you block hands that might fold such as Qx and Jx, while you unblock all the nut flushes and straights. I think having the AhTs would be much better in this regard.
I think AhKx should always 3barrel, here mostly, as we still have the Kh.
I like blockbet w my betting range ott, bc I still want to have thiner value bets than two pair and don't really want to split range to two sizings ott., that shouldnt lose much ev
Yeah I like this, I try to incorporate this line more and more into my game, this is something that our AA/KK/AQ/KQs w/o a heart type hands will benefit a lot from :)
You could probably look more intimidating if you bet less on flop and more on turn (~80%). This will get a good amount of folds from weak pairs and you'll take it down and still have opportunity to bink some rivers.
I would never really consider bluffing this river against a weak reg. Your line of 3bet/double barrel is +EV in itself and imo triple barrel bluffing is going to be splitting hairs and complicated for very little EV gain in a vacuum. Finding spots where you create big risk for small gains can be self destructive.
I think you are absolutely right afterwards. Thanks a lot for you answer! :)
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