10NLz - Three Barrel Bluff
Posted by Mancuso
Posted by
Mancuso
posted in
Low Stakes
10NLz - Three Barrel Bluff
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players)
BN: $13.07
SB: $10.63 (Hero)
BB: $12.25
UTG: $12.80
MP: $3.47
CO: $16.09
SB: $10.63 (Hero)
BB: $12.25
UTG: $12.80
MP: $3.47
CO: $16.09
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is SB with
J
A
, , , , ,
Flop
($1.90)
4
7
6
,
Turn
($3.22)
4
7
6
K
,
River
($7.66)
4
7
6
K
9
,
Vs unknown.
What do you think about this line?
We block possible combos of AK, KJ, unblock his missed flushes OTR.
Can we make some KQ, KJ fold here?
I don't know if we CB oop our entire range for a smaller value or XF, XC.
Loading 5 Comments...
well played at some freq bluff, have many value hands, have many bluffs. I think KJ is our worst merged value bet here
It looks like a good spot to bluff, we are quite balanced here.
I would just be careful doing this against an unknown, when getting stacks in as a bluff I'd like to have some level of confidence villain will fold KQ/KJ
If Villain has something like the below on the river:
AK, KQ, KJ, 77, 66, 44 = 39 hands
QQ-TT, AhQh-AhTh, QhJh, JhTh = 20 hands
Based on what you shoved, we need villain to fold roughly around 45% of the time. If he isn't folding KQ/KJ at all then villain is only folding 34% of his hands on the river, which means it isn't profitable. If he'll fold KJ the it bumps you up to 49% (just passing breakeven). If you throw KQ into folding range here you get 69%. So my point is vs an unknown this probably isn't the best spot to pull a bluff, you need at the very least some handle on the player type, nit, lag, tag, fish, bad agro, to even have the slightest guess at what villain will fold there.
Some of my thoughts:
It seems to me that even considering the possibility of villain folding Kx would be a mistake here. It's just so rare to find an opponent who is that tight in practice that it doesn't seem worthwhile to even entertain the thought. So with the range assumptions above, shoving as a bluff would be a big mistake in my opinion. BUT...
...why are we discounting 55/88/99/TT/JJ/87s and all the other nutflushdraw combos? I think villains range is wider than what you laid out and discounting 55/88 for example, that are in villains range in pretty much 100% frequency seems like a big mistake to me.
We are also assuming that villain will have all combos of KQo and KJo, which may or may not be the case. What I would do is maybe discount half of KJo because those might even fold preflop and might also fold flop.
My conclusion: Based on population tendencies, I would discount atleast some KJo from villains range, maybe even some KQ and even some sets, because some people at smaller stakes seem to be too eager to play their sets fast. With all that I think this is a pretty decent spot to bluff overall. However, it's probably not a huge moneymaker and it might turn into a negative one if villain is playing a strategy that is closer to what bumblebtuna laid out above (having all Kx in his range, never playing sets fast, being tight on the turn with stuff like TT/JJ...) But if we ever have a good triple barrel bluffing spot in a 3bet pot OOP, I'd say that this is definitely one of the better ones (these spots tend to be poor for bluffing, because people are undisciplined and their ranges tend to be tight and defined by the river).
I don't mind the bluff, honestly. Your hand is pretty good for it too.
To Samu,
Best combo to bluff is AQ, since as you said and as I agree villian wont defend KJo that much. So blocking KQ and AK is our goal.
AJ probably mixed bluff(if I guess 50-70% bluff without heart, because honestly we have worst combos to do so, at least I do A5(not good bluff blocking folding range a bit), QJs,JTs, A8s. I like A8 to bluff because actually some guys snap 89 otr, not blocking all our bluffs that missed/
I do agree with that. However, I don't really think the spot is so close that we should we concerned with such a small differences (and mixing). What I would note though is that hands that have Ah are significantly worse than hands that don't have it (AhJx vs. AsJx). Blocking so many folding combos is a big deal, whereas I don't think that the difference between AJo and AQo is all that significant, although it might make the difference between bluffing and not bluffing in some instances.
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