[10NLZ] should we fold the turn here?
Posted by ChaoRen123
Posted by
ChaoRen123
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Low Stakes
[10NLZ] should we fold the turn here?
Hey guys, villain is unknown. I open a lot in late positions in my game as players tend to be overly passive. But this call 3bet is really borderline, I wouldn't bother a fold afterwards.
OTT we already have a pure bluffcatcher as I think he polarizes to at least a straight here (maybe a set sometimes?), and he doesn't have a lot of offsuit hands with Ah unless AQ or AJ here as a bluff. So can we fold given our read on the field?
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Your behind AQhh, AJhh, AThh, QJhh, QTs25%, JThh (6) JJ (3), KK (3)
12 combos
You win against AK (12), AA (6)
18 combos
you get 2.6 to 1 on the river
So you need to be good 27% of times
If villain bluffs or bets more than 4.6 combos weaker hands, it's a call for you.
Even if we give him 0% bluffs, if villain has AK or AA more than 26% of times in this line it's a call.
So yeah, if you know your population good and they never bluff and never valuebet AK/AA like that it's a fold. If your not sure about this assumption it's a pretty clear call.
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fold pre. people have around 4-7% 3bet in that spot (at nl10 i guess more on the tighter side) and the rake is too high to make it a profitable defend.
Hey, thanks for the reply man, but I must admit that this is pretty surprising to me, do you often expect to be up against worst here? I mean, my range is so uncapped, I have a bunch of flushes and straights here, not speaking about my sets, and overbets are underbluffed, so assuming he could have aces is kind of optimistic to me?
I'm probably not the best person to respond to this post, because I'm not terribly certain of reads in these situations. I've read two of your posts and both posts start with a likely negative preflop play caveated with a strong read "that makes it profitable" along with a likely very negative postflop fold caveated with a strong read "that makes it profitable".
From a practical standpoint, I'd try to play poker that doesn't assume that we have Doyle Brunson style reads on our opponents. We're playing a micro stakes, the basic formula to win is to play solid preflop strategies which slightly overfold due to rake and then never hero fold strong hands, because the average player has only a basic grasp of hand values, so could be overvaluing a weaker hand.
Hey,
Yeah all of those statements which have a good chance to be wrong are the result of me trying to figure out and apply Nick Howard's strategy on my own. I can relate to what you are saying because I still feel like I am probing the field with this new strategy I am trying to build, without being certain a 100% (even though in poker it is never the case) of most of my plays.
However so far I have seen tremendous changes on my game with much more confidence in it. There is a good chance it is only good run, but it can turn out that some of the exploits I have implemented might actually work...
But yeah overall after the feedback I got I think the play to make is to stick to a more standard preflop strategy at micros and then maybe get more fancy when I should at higher stakes and with a deeper understanding of the game.
I think call is fine, given the 3bet size, villain is very like weaker, so play in position w suited and somewhat connected hand is fine having such a good pot odds I think, especially deeper
He can have 99, KK and JJ some of the time on the turn. QTs seems like a stretch in his BB 3b range plus you block it. I can feasibly see AhAx in his range here. Doesn't make sense for him to overbet flushes here but I guess it could happen some of the time. Does he overbet flopped or turned sets for protection vs FD's? I think he overbets sets at a higher frequency than he does flushes. I think you can shove this turn if you are to get to this point in the hand with this holding. Unpaired board, flopping flushes is quite difficult to do, you block QT and you can get called here by worse.
That being said, I think T7s is just a muck pre, the price is ok but I think I start calling here with T9s. If I got to the flop with T7ss on heart monotone, I am just mucking there.
Okayyy. Pre I'm not excited, rather play tighter but more hands than loose and less, I don't think by playing loose your winrate will jump a lot (only when you skill extremely high that you can beat rake and opponents).
Vs 3bet I will call sometimes. Hand is decent and playable, but don't expect it to be profitable, probably better than -290bb/100 (your rfi)
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