[10NLZ] Facing a donk bet shove 3x pot OTR
Posted by ChaoRen123
Posted by
ChaoRen123
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Low Stakes
[10NLZ] Facing a donk bet shove 3x pot OTR
Hey, villain is unknown.
OTR I don't think my hand is a pure bluffcatcher because villain could potentially do this sometimes with a Jx or a nutflush, but maybe I am wrong... The most probable holding is still KK imo, I think he raises KJ often OTT, but again I am not sure at all....
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It's a big explo move, but folding this hand would be correct. People don't bluff such Rivers at micro/lowstakes enough. People at these stakes don't even turn a hand like Tx9h into a bluff on the river.
21 combos have you beat
villain used a very big river sizing, he needs to bluff 16.6 combos in order to hit GTO frequency. He needs to bluff more than 16.6 combos for you to make a +EV call, which will on average not happen in such a spot.
Hey, thanks for your reply!
I definitely have a leak here as I thought given his line, he could have some lower value hands such as flushes at a non-zero frequency (which we can count as bluffs in this scenario), would you definitely exclude that from your thinking process?
Even if some opponents are very bad and let's say we give them on average a bad valueshove with weaker hands than FH, let's say 33% nutflushes and 33% of times a hand like AQo, it would still not be enough bluffs. (less than 10 bluffcombos)
That Jh is like the nut worst card ever. Fills 2 straight flushes. The price isn't great and 88 really becomes a bluff catcher on a board where bluffs are going to be hard to come by. In game this is a tough one to find a fold but I think it is correct.
hey, agreed that this is kind of a bad card. But villain in game I thought villain won't have Q9hh here, and not often AQhh... Even though I definitely think you are right on the hero fold :/
ChaoRen123 I am curious to hear your thoughts on why SB wont have Q9hh and AQhh in a single raised pot as SB. I just completed a long drive home and was thinking about this hand trying to figure out what your point of view was. Just trying to figure out if I am missing something here. Thanks man.
Hey, AQhh not really sure because it has sdvalue but I thought Q9hh and combo draw type hands without showdown value are way more often bet otf or check/raised. I could be wrong about the way the field plays, but I would also think that on the turn out of position especially with this SPR, straights would be raised a good chunk of the time. Not sure about anything I just said, those are just assumptions though :/
I feel you.
In his shoes, I would c/c both AQhh and Q9hh on this flop. On turn, I start check/raising Q9 no heart and AQ no heart but me holding AQhh or Q9hh blocks so much of your semi bluffing range that I think I am inclined to just check/call. Your turn bet is quite polarized and the best set I can really put you on is 88 here and you are drawing to 9 outs (3 K's, 3 Q's, one 8 and 2 J's, since the Jh nuts you up with either holding). Aside from that, the best you are likely to have is 2pr which is drawing very thin and I would be afraid of losing you vs. a CR on the turn with these two nutted holdings.
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