10nl Trips facing river shove from reg
Posted by wdres123
Posted by
wdres123
posted in
Low Stakes
10nl Trips facing river shove from reg
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (5 Players)
CO: $11.19 (Hero)
BN: $16.26
SB: $10.05
BB: $27.88
UTG: $3.64
BN: $16.26
SB: $10.05
BB: $27.88
UTG: $3.64
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is CO with
A
Q
, , , ,
Flop
($0.75)
6
Q
3
, , , ,
Turn
($1.63)
6
Q
3
K
, ,
River
($3.75)
6
Q
3
K
Q
, , ,
Final Pot
BB wins $9.04
Rake is $0.47
Rake is $0.47
Thoughts on river fold? Villain seemed like an aggressive reg over ~50 hands. In game I thought the line looked super strong, pocket 6s pocket 3s and maybe Q3s makes sense here? Does villain ever do this with missed flush draws?
Loading 9 Comments...
I'm not folding this.
Have to call 6.56 to win 22.63. So we have to win 28.99% off the time. Seems realistic when they are representing so thinly.
29% isn't trivial though. Do you think a 10nl reg is taking this line as a bluff often enough to meet RE?
Which value does he have though? We block a lot of Qx FH. And sets are deducted as they raise earlier very often.
It becomes easy to overbluff here without knowing it.
KQo: 3
Sets: 2
Q3s: 1 (Q6s doesn't even exist with our Qc)
Those are 6 combo's. Assuming KQ and Q3 never gets raised earlier. And that there are 2 full set combo's out of 6. Analysis has shown it's more like 16% set slowplay, not 33. And as soon as he bluffs 3 combo's it becomes profitable for us to call.
If we reduce value combo's to 4 then it's 2 bluff combo's.
Fair point. Appreciate the analysis
I call, his tripps should be reduced alot by not checkraising flop or turn, same goes for some QK. Not thrilled but i call this
Fair point, there's not a lot of value hands he can have here
Versus an aggressive reg I definitely call this, he could value bet any worst Q.
I think it is very, very close but a hero call. Why hold back with the set or two pair on the turn? The board is nasty and not the time to mix it up. If it is the doomsday hand make a note and move on
Agree it's hard for V to get here on double FD run out with sets. Take a note that he's capable of slowplaying a set to the river on this type of board and don't feel too bad about it. Even if you lose a stack it's pretty thin. Also, FWIW you have the best suit combo blocking hands w/o FDs and unblocking hands with FDs.
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