10NL (stars) population in 3-bet pots?
Posted by HinduReal
Posted by
HinduReal
posted in
Low Stakes
10NL (stars) population in 3-bet pots?
Hi @ all!
Let me start by saying that I just started playing again a few weeks ago after having been away from the games for about 5 years. I had a pretty good run at 5NL and finished a 3.30 tournament in 3rd place, so I was able to move up to 10NL. Thus, I won't pretend to be an expert on today's micros or anything.
That said, I wanted to share an observation that somewhat contradicts common knowledge. During my sessions over the last couple of days, I was in a few spots where I ended up calling river bets rather lightly i.e. with bluffcatchers. I did so based on villain and board texture. While some spots were in regular pots, several arose in 3-bet pots. I naturally wasn't correct in all spots, but I was a fair amount of the time. And what I found particularly interesting is the type of hands villain would show up with.
One example:
On a
8c4cAd9h4d board
in a BU (me) vs SB pot, villain (who 3-bet) showed up with
KsJh
after barreling 3 streets. (Not my favorite hand to barrel 3 streets with on that board, to say the least)
Now, my sample size is obv very small. I don't want to read too much into those spots. At the same time, conventional wisdom has it that villains in the micros hardly bluff OTR.
I wonder: Might this actually be an urban legend based on behavior from the past? Might it be the case that there is a certain typology of micro villains who actually massively overbluff in those situations (which would be a good exploit vs a population that overfolds because of said population read)? I suppose some of you played considerably more hands at 10NL recently and I'd love to hear your (empirically backed) take on this.
And if that type actually happens to exist: which stats should we watch out for? Obv a pretty high 3-bet% over a decent sample is a good starting point as those ranges are wider by definition. Then we could look at their cbet% on T/F/R in 3bet pots. But those stats need time to converge. So maybe there might be some other clues that should make us more inclined to call down lighter.
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Hey man, well thought out and honest post.
I would say that like so many things in poker, it's very hard to isolate one factor, everything is interlinked.
So here, yes he bluffed KJ, which is odd. but actually whats more odd is that he bets turn.
When guys bet turn with total air, I'd guess it gets river bet fairly often, but it's pretty rare he'd just bet a no equity bluff ott like that - esp given the population folds significantly less ott than any other street. No equity turn barrels are big losers.
99% of regs will know this, and so GS is about the worst you'll see as a "bluff" ott.
So I'd say this was a pretty random hand that is not representitive of the population at all.
Obv depends on player type as well, but big bets as bluffs don't happen too often. Even the guys that will do it sometimes, will have a goods pretty often as well so I'd say just stay solid.
If you start calling tripple barrel light you'll be back @NL5 in no time IMO.
By all means if you get a significant sample, then go with it. At that point we'd maybe just accept that you're picking good spots/villains/textures.
There's definitely a small number of maniacs at NL5 where I play. And they do appear to be mostly profitable since players don't seem to adjust.
If he's 3b 10-15 and post-flop agression factor 5-7, call down anything half decent. There are high 3betors with low AF so watch out.
Today I found a winning reg that re-raised 100% on turn. Sample 400. Is enough to conclude that he's a one trick pony?
Hmm... reraised? so he bet/3bets 100%? or he raises 100% v a bet?
400 sample?
400 raises?
400 opportunities to raise?
400 hands?
Over what sample is he a winning reg?
Don't get me wrong, there are nutters about but they don't win ITLR
The only reaaon why i can think why villian barelled away with KJ is he blocks AK and as the 3 bettor preflop he has range advantage on the ace high flop. Meaning he is much more likely to have a big ace then we are.
I can think of 5 more lilely reasons.
1.Drunk.
2. Watching sports as well as poker.
3. tilty mo fo
4. Bluffing in big pots is his raison d'être
5. Terrible NL 10 player who has no clue what he reps or wht your range is but KJ is his "lucky hand"
I don't think micro player need much a of a reason to do anything, don't overthink it.
Whats your win rate so far at 10nl colin
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