10NL - Should I have a bluffing range OTR here?
Posted by robinfromthehood
Posted by robinfromthehood posted in Low Stakes
10NL - Should I have a bluffing range OTR here?
MP: $10.51
UTG+1: $22.11
MP+1: $10.56
MP+2: $15.45
CO: $10.00 (Hero)
BN: $10.00
SB: $3.05
BB: $16.36
Villain is 21/3 over 150 hands. Cold-calls 23%. Cold-called 4/10 in the BB.
Hasn't 3bet once in that sample, 78 opportunities.
Given those stats, assuming his preflop range is something like 22+ / A2s+ / A8o+ / 65s+ / 75s+ / suited and offsuit broadways. Stats suggest he doesn't 3bet much but assume he 3bets QQ+/AK with some frequency.
On the flop I'm obviously cbetting my OESDs, my BDFDs, gutshots, top pair +. Assume his calling range is any pair, OESDs, any gutshot with a BDFD.
On the turn I'm continuing with my OESDs and my turned FDs. Expect villain to continue with second pair +. My thought process was that I hit this board pretty hard with my CO range and will be betting 3 streets for value with a kinda wide range (KJs+, AA, KK TT, 66). It's obviously not a great card to barrel but my intention was to barrel all rivers to get a fold from his Tx hands, QQ-JJ, his QJ.
The river is obviously a horrible card to barrel, given he's now not folding Tx. I ended up levelling myself in to betting because I figured that QJ is the only bluff I have here - my BDFDs got there. However it's pretty clear that I'm rarely getting any folds... so should I have no bluffing range at all on this river?
Also interested to hear your thoughts on my plan to bet turn and river. Happy with betting river on pretty much any non-T?
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