10NL River Bet Size Decision

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10NL River Bet Size Decision

Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (6 Players) MP: $9.35
CO: $10.25 (Hero)
BN: $9.26
SB: $9.90
BB: $10.22
UTG: $24.38
Preflop ($0.15) Hero is CO with K Q
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.25, BN calls $0.25, 2 folds
Pretty much my standard sizing from the CO w/o known fish in the blinds. BU ends up being a passive fish, but I think this was early enough in the session that I am unsure of his player type. I figure his range looks something like AJs-A2s, AJo-ATo, all suited and suited broadway except AK/AQ and KQs (assuming those get 3bet), 22-99, T9s-54s. I think this population tends to under-3B and call too wide. Some hands like KQs and AQ may be in his flat range.
Flop ($0.65) A A Q
Hero checks, BN checks
Good flop for my hand, I need no real protection at this point, but this is a hand I could bet at a fairly high frequency IP; however, since I am OOP I chose to beef up my X/C range a bit. Once they check back I immediately discount an A.
Turn ($0.65) A A Q 8
Hero bets $0.41, BN calls $0.41
8 is a decent card, and I think it is time to extract value. I could probably bet larger here, but I choose a more modest sizing trying to get value from draws, 8x, and weaker Qx.
River ($1.47) A A Q 8 7
Hero bets $0.60, BN folds
This is where I think I may have made a sizing mistake and could have gone larger to try and target worse Qx. I went for the block bet sizing in order to target things like 8x or maybe 99 that may call a smaller size. Obviously I am also not thrilled about the 3 hearts, but since I have the Qh I am not overly concerned and want to try and extract a small amount of value. This would be a B/F if villain were to raise. I don't think X/C is a good line against this pop. as my read on them is that river bets tend to be much more nutted and thin value is not something this population goes for. River bluffs tend to be rare here as well.
Final Pot CO wins $1.40
Rake is $0.07

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