10NL: Nut Flush River Value vs Fish

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

10NL: Nut Flush River Value vs Fish

Hand History driven straight to this forum with DriveHUD Poker Tracking Software - http://drivehud.com

NL Holdem $0.10(BB)
BB ($4.45) [VPIP: 17.1% | PFR: 2.9% | AGG: 44.4% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 35]
HJ ($13.18) [VPIP: 26.3% | PFR: 22.8% | AGG: 46.2% | 3-Bet: 15.4% | Hands: 58]
CO ($10.66) [VPIP: 46.7% | PFR: 0% | AGG: 12.5% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 16]
HERO ($10.32) [VPIP: 35.3% | PFR: 21.6% | AGG: 30.6% | 3-Bet: 6.1% | Hands: 27064]
SB ($9.15) [VPIP: 28.6% | PFR: 14.3% | AGG: 25% | 3-Bet: 0% | Hands: 14]

Dealt to Hero: Q:diamond: A:club:

HJ Folds, CO Calls $0.10, HERO Raises To $0.40, SB Folds, BB Folds, CO Calls $0.30

Hero SPR on Flop: [10.44 effective]
Flop ($0.95): Q:club: 2:heart: 3:club:
CO Checks, HERO Bets $0.33 (Rem. Stack: 9.59), CO Calls $0.33 (Rem. Stack: 9.93)

Turn ($1.61): Q:club: 2:heart: 3:club: 8:club:
CO Checks, HERO Bets $0.89 (Rem. Stack: 8.70), CO Calls $0.89 (Rem. Stack: 9.04)

River ($3.39): Q:club: 2:heart: 3:club: 8:club: 9:club:
CO Checks, HERO Bets $3.39 (Rem. Stack: 5.31), CO Calls $3.39 (Rem. Stack: 5.65)

HERO wins: $9.67

How do my sizings look here overall? On the river, I regret not shoving because he snap called pot. I just knew I wanted to get good river value out of this hand and I thought I was x'ing out too many of his calling combos if I shoved. In the end, I got ~50bb instead of ~100bb with the absolute nuts. Thoughts?

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