This. Non flush Q rivers - maybe, but def. never donking this one.

Hey, oblioo!

Do you expect to get 2 streets with this hand once the flop goes X-X? If not, isn't it better to XC the turn, especially with 2 FD's out there?
My point is that if we check this flop, then lead the turn and check the R, isn't our range a little face up and bluffcatcher-heavy?

taaazz, No I don't think my check/bet/check range here is face-up as bluffcatcher-heavy, but I tend to check a lot of strong hands OTF. And, I'm not exactly sure what you mean by "get 2 streets"... you don't necessarily need to be planning on betting both turn and river in order to want to put money in OTT, and if bet turn, c/c river is "2 streets" then yes.

If anything your point that there are two FDs out there is more incentive for us to bet the turn because the FDs in villain's range are mostly Ax (he would have likely bet weaker hands OTF plus he just has a lot more Axs pre), which means they are likely to check back again since they have SDV, and we don't want to let FDs check back.

Thanks a lot! Now it makes sense. I ment that if we bet 2 streets, do you expect to be called twice by worse hands (and if not, isn't it better to check to let Villain take a stab), and I didn't really think Villain might stab his random draws otr since he might expect us to bet T+R with our air and check the R with the intention of calling a bet.

I really liked the argument about Villain's range containing hands that call a bet, but XB otherwise - it really convinced me.

The other way to say what I was thinking about - do you take a X/B/X line w/ AT-AJ?
Because if not, Villain doesn't really have all that much incentive to bet his busted draws (which are mainly Ax hands - you said it yourself that he's likely to bet the weaker ones otf) if he's usually getting called, and he can't really expect us to fold a Qx vs a bet, right?

Soooo, what might his betting range look like then?

I hope that it makes at least a little sense, haha. :D

Yes I actually do x/b/x with AT-AJ here pretty often because we'd like to get smallish pairs to fold OTT, and of course AT-AJ are fairly high-equity bluffing hands, but we can't follow through with all of them OTR.

As to whether we want to vbet turn and river with AQ, I think it largely depends on the river card. On blank rivers I would bet again because I think we can get called by at least some of: QJ, QTs, Q9s, A7s, 87s, JJ, TT, 99, 88, most of which check back when checked to both on turn and river. (Yes maybe they fold 88-TT OTT, but maybe they don't and get stubborn when draws miss.) On top of that I generally expect most players at SSNL and lower to bet flop with top pair.

Great, now I understand how you're thinking about this spot.
Thanks again for taking the time to explain this. :)

np :), and fwiw there could easily be (and likely is) a better strategy; this is just, as you mentioned, how I think about this spot.

hi cpau,

Villain called a 3b vs. SB, so the worst Kx hand he can have is prob ~KTs/KJo. On this wet of a flop a lot of players will bet those, but you are right that we may get "value owned" sometimes on some run-outs; that's always a risk we take by value betting thinly.

And about my checking range OTF: it's not capped. There are a lot of reasons for checking strong hands: villain is likely to bet this board IP when checked to, we will have to c/f this flop often so we don't want to let villain auto-bet ATC vs. our air, we make more money with QQ (for example) by going for a c/r than a cbet, and a handful of other reasons. Just because we're the initial 3bettor isn't exactly a good reason to bet.

How do you decide how you construct your range ? I mean, the wetter the flop, the more likely I am to cbet with strong hand and not let him get a free card (for exemple, cbetting QQ here). On a dry board, I agree with checking more to induce a bluff, but on a two tone connected board, I like the cbet. Im not saying checking is bad, but I'd like to know how do you choose your line when constructing your range.

That is a big question and I'm not gonna get too into it in a forum post, but one question it seems like you may be overlooking is: how likely is villain to bet when checked to with the hands that I am trying to get value/protect from? If villain is going to bet anyway then you don't need to do it yourself.

yeah I get it, but you gotta go for a c/r then, because we dont want to x/c flop check turn and let him take the free card with his med-strong or worse hands that would call another bet but wont bet themselves.

So, what I understand is that you would favour a x/r with your real strong hand and maybe cbet the one not strong enough to x/r (and you probably include some of the better hands into your cbetting to be balanced).For exemple, you can x/r QQ, KK, but cbet 77 and KQ. Also, what about AK and combo draw like AJcc, JTss (if in our range) ?