10NL: AA Sizing OTR against capped range
Posted by MatoStar
Posted by
MatoStar
posted in
Low Stakes
10NL: AA Sizing OTR against capped range
Blinds: $0.05/$0.10 (9 Players)
BB: $11.46
UTG: $13.97 (Hero)
UTG+1: $4.59
MP: $7.77
MP+1: $5.42
MP+2: $11.04
CO: $10.00
BN: $9.85
SB: $15.45
UTG: $13.97 (Hero)
UTG+1: $4.59
MP: $7.77
MP+1: $5.42
MP+2: $11.04
CO: $10.00
BN: $9.85
SB: $15.45
Anonymous table, SB so far with no fishy signs
Preflop
($0.15)
Hero is UTG with
A
A
, , , , , , , , ,
Flop
($2.80)
6
5
T
, , , , ,
Could probably go even bigger, having weaker players in the pot, however our hand does not need that much of a protection and being 4way wanna get calls from weaker pairs.
Turn
($11.20)
6
5
T
T
,
After larger raise OTF, his range is pretty polarized, so I decided to check and let him bluff OTR.
River
($11.20)
6
5
T
T
3
,
Definitely value betting. His range is air, 65s, slowplayed nuts and maybe merged 77-99 or JJ-KK. Having no more than pot behind (90.70bb) is there any room for multiple bet sizings?
The question is if betting super tiny small may induce some bluffs or we are just missing value from 65s and weaker twopair hands.
The question is if betting super tiny small may induce some bluffs or we are just missing value from 65s and weaker twopair hands.
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So by this logic when they don't bet on the river they have following categories of hands:
The question on the river would then be what do we target when we are betting and how do we get the most value from it?
Our target is clear, the pocket pairs. Now if we go big and bet pot he only calls 50% off the time (theory wise). So the bigger we go the more easily he can fold his pocket pairs.
This would incentivize us to go for a smaller sizing. It doesn't isolate us more against his slowplayed hands and still gets value from pocket pairs.
If we look at our own range we generally don't have many bluffs here. We bluff often on turns after the check if we would want to bluff. Another reason for small size.
When would I go all in? When it is shown that SB does not slowplay his hands. If he barely ever shows up with Tx or better.
thanks for the reply:)
Hmm I do think that this might be often true at these stakes. Which is kinda tricky, because otherwise we would be clearly opting for a smaller sizing (maybe sth around 1/4?). However, I am strongly convinced that we will hardly ever see here a Tx.
Lets assume that we have 50% FE when jammed, so he needs to have less than 25% slowplayed Tx or better, in case we are betting for value. Personally I wouldnt be concerned about this fact.
My main concern is that he might start overfolding and therefore we would be isolating ourselves.. you know then he needs to have like 10-20% of slowplayed hands which dominate us. Maybe its still ok(ish)
Btw by betting smaller, do we always bet/fold? As you mentioned, a decent portion of his range are just bluffs, so that there is some probability that he might just start putting us on overpairs with intention to represent Tx or FH..
I created a Google Spreadsheet to give you an idea on how their slowplay % and our sizing work.
The formula at the 4th column of a table =(((100-E2)A2)+((E2-D2)(A2+C2))-(C2*D2))/100
Times they fold + times they call and we win pot + out betsize - times they have slowplayed and we lose our bet.
As you can see the lower we go the more profit we would be making in theory. This is because their slowplay% is a set number in those tables. And the smaller we go the more profit we are turning because we beat all the other hands that are now forced to call.
In reality though, SB is not going to call that often. So you would need to look at the MDF mainly. How often can SB call us? Going below that sizing from that point would be losing EV. I have simulated this in the first table. You can compare Column F and G and notice that as soon as your betsize makes SB's MDF go over 0.7 you are starting to lose EV by going a smaller betsize.
So when you think your opponent isn't going to call very often (< 50%) then go for the big size. If you think he will be calling very often (> 70%) go for 1/3th size would be my simplification.
This doesn't keep in mind the few times we ourselves have a monster and SB jams on us with worse and we call it off.
What lIlCitanul said, and I think you can bet/fold the river ez if you dont have specific reads. At NL10 I would be very very surprised being exploited here.
Should hero shove the flop given less than PSB left on the turn?
I could see that being profitable, probably in theory one of the worst PPs to be doing that with, since AA doesnt need the protection as much as other PPs do. Id argue its a somewhat big variance play, since people are pretty honest here and on the next streets, so we could navigate it smoothly.
downflux01 would you fold on later streets unless improved? If yes, I don't see the merits of calling the flop raise.
crazyriver If im facing too much action, yes, because I dont think Tx is going to overplay like that too often.. but my assumption is that most of his (semi)-bluffs are not going to shove as a bluff OTR to frequently, so I dont have a tough decision if I have to fold. Shove OTF seems a bit risky, a fold too nitty yet - so Id prefer the middle of both and call
downflux01 my only problem here is that we have SPR < 1, once we call the flop, so it feels like we have to make the decision at this point whether we're calling it down on later streets or folding. I simply don't see a scenario, where I would call flop and give up on later streets that "shallow". But I might be totally wrong, as well...
I would bet small river as well, youll get called by counterfeited 65s, some PPs that went for a value/protection raise OTF (66-88, not sure where vils limping threshold lies PF to limp behind, so Id be careful to give him JJ-KK like you did OTR) and that should be enough, with the intention to bet/fold that is
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