10NL 6-Max Zoom. Bad river play with a set on a 3 flush board?
Posted by Jorofish
Posted by Jorofish posted in Low Stakes
10NL 6-Max Zoom. Bad river play with a set on a 3 flush board?
BN: $24.76
SB: $10.15 (Hero)
BB: $7.17
UTG: $10
HJ: $11.53
CO: $9.61
SB: $10.15 (Hero)
BB: $7.17
UTG: $10
HJ: $11.53
CO: $9.61
CO - VP:26, PFR:21, 3B:17, CBF:89, over 123 samples
Preflop
($0.15)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
5
5
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.30, BN folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB folds
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to $0.30, BN folds, Hero calls $0.25, BB folds
Called from the blinds with the intention of a set-mine
Flop
($0.70)
T
4
5
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets $0.30,
Hero raises to $0.93,
CO calls $0.63
Checked the flop with the intention of check/raising. After villain's call it narrows his range to Tx and flush draws. Is it likely that villain would 3bet his nut-flush draws here?
Turn
($2.56)
T
4
5
8
(2 Players)
Hero bets $1.90,
CO calls $1.90
Hero chooses to lead the turn to prevent villain checking behind and realizing his equity if on a flush draw, and to extract value from Tx
River
($6.36)
T
4
5
8
Q
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
CO bets $4.20,
Hero folds
This is the spot I found tricky. My first instinct was to bet/fold, but I had a friend ghosting my session at the time who suggested I check/call instead.
In my mind I feel as though a bet will not have any worse hands call. All Tx should be folding here, especially after the flop check-raise turns a large amount of my range into a flush draw. I doubt Qx would call here, as the only likely combo remaining in villains range is QT which will likely be folding anyway with the last spade; meaning the only combos calling here are made flushes.
However a check/call allows for villain to fire his Tx here that he feels is good, but also along with his now made flush combos. There is also a small possibility he could be turning a weirdly played A4s, 43s, or 54s into a bluff but I think this is unlikely.
I did make this plan in my mind as I checked the river, but upon seeing the sizing of villain's river bet I got a little worried. I'm not a very experienced poker player, but the sizing just reeked of value to me. So I tanked and talked it over with my friend, and just as we were about to call I timed out and folded.
In my mind I feel as though a bet will not have any worse hands call. All Tx should be folding here, especially after the flop check-raise turns a large amount of my range into a flush draw. I doubt Qx would call here, as the only likely combo remaining in villains range is QT which will likely be folding anyway with the last spade; meaning the only combos calling here are made flushes.
However a check/call allows for villain to fire his Tx here that he feels is good, but also along with his now made flush combos. There is also a small possibility he could be turning a weirdly played A4s, 43s, or 54s into a bluff but I think this is unlikely.
I did make this plan in my mind as I checked the river, but upon seeing the sizing of villain's river bet I got a little worried. I'm not a very experienced poker player, but the sizing just reeked of value to me. So I tanked and talked it over with my friend, and just as we were about to call I timed out and folded.
Final Pot
CO
wins $6.07
Upon review however, it would appear as though I should have called regardless. Giving villain a river betting range of AA-TT,55-44,ATo,AKs-A4s,KTs,QTs,JTs (with suited non-ten hands being spades), results in 71% equity for my hand if he is making this bet every time. Getting odds of 2.51:1 on the river means we need to be winning at least 28% of the time for this call to be profitable, so I'm thinking perhaps it was a large leak to fold?
Let me know what you think :)
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