$10/20 NL 3b flop
Posted by FIVEbetbLUFF
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FIVEbetbLUFF
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High Stakes
$10/20 NL 3b flop
Villain $2000- Raise to $40
Hero $3800 [4s2s]- Call $20
Flop ($79) 5s3c8s
Hero checks
Villain bets $60
Hero raises to $228
Villain raises to $600
I usually raise flop or turn, but decided to raise flop here this time. I assume that villain is very nutted here, has 2pr+ and sets almost always ( and like never a stronger flush draw). We have only played 100 hands but he hasn't taken very aggressive actions before. I was raising him on the flop a bit, so maybe this is a spaz and maybe he folds occasionally but I just think he has it. But I can't like fold i dont think. So flat, or shove?
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Going to try to figure this out with math. Lets say he has X% continuing range if we jam consisting of all 2 pair+, all sets, 7s6s, As9s+ and Y% folding range. Y=(1-x) If we jam we have 45% equity vs his continuing range. So we then get that
EV(bluff)= X(W%($won)-L%($loss)+Y(current pot)
=X(.45(2268)-.55(1732))+((1-X)908).
For the jam to correct we need Y to be => some number such that EV(bluff)>EV(call) If we call its a little tougher to figure out because of implied odds, redraws etc. Feel like someone should CRev it (I would but don't have the program). By saying we GII on all turns we hit, Fold all board pairs, and continue on non paired turn if he bets less than pot. Then get the rest in on all rivers we hit. (seem reasonable?) Here is my rudimentary attempt saying we have 80% equity when we hit turn and 90% on rivers (he can have higher flushes) and we call 800 on all non paired turns (Just about 2/3 pot seemed reasonable) priced in folding all missed rivers. Using 2x rule to get 30% chance of hitting
EV(call on flop)= %(hit turn)(W%$won-L%$lost)-$call%(board pairs)+ %(all other turns)((turn equity)$won-(1-equity)$(call flop+call turn))
= .3(.8(2268)-.2(1732))-372.2+.5((.32268)-(.7*1172))
=296
So then solve for Break even X
296=X(.45(2268)-.55(1732))+((1-X)*908)
296=68X+908-908X
-612=-840X
.72=X
Y= (1-X)=.28
So we need him to fold 28% of the time for a jam to be as profitable with these assumptions. If he bets more or less on turn will change that number, but i think it shows given reads seems like this is a call and he isn't folding enough for a bluff to be maxEV.
I have never done this intensive of math analysis before so I could be totally wrong, but I think i got it
I think you definitely need to know beforehand what u'll do if you get 3b OTF. Check-raising such a big equity hand and then be lost is not good. Tommy Angelo wrote in his book that a raise is basically the only thing we have to consider in one given street, because if opponent folds the hand is over, and if opponent calls, we get to the next street: so all there is to expect is to be raised, and yet we always get caught off guard when it happens. Definitely something to think about / work on.
As for what you say (u think he has it and doesn't have a strong flush draw), then call and try to hit.
Ship it for 100bb effective. Approx. a flip, even against sets, you will alter your image to loose aggressive, which is key for extracting value in upcomign spots.
I fail to see how this is anything but a ship. You flopped an absolute monster.
i just think he has no bluffing range and always has 85 53 or 33/55/88 and if so, is the right course of action to call/call turn jam? call/fold to turn jam? ship it right now? call/hope he checks turn and fold to turn jam?
There are complications if i call in that if i hit, do i lead? like i will be very unbalanced to lead jam? can i lead jam other turns and get folds from 2pr? like a 4 turn can i lead jam for pot and rep 76 and get any FE?
Why do you think about balance if you have the read your opponent only has a strong made hand? Your read comes from somewhere. Then play accordingly to your read.
Can vilain 3B a set OTF and fold many turns? I'd say it's unlikely. So from what you say, the plan is to hit, and then to get paid off, which you probably get by donk shoving.
i agree. just sucks that we have to fold a bunch of turns when he jams his 1360 into the 1280 pot on turn
Most people flatting ranges doesn't have 83o/53o with 100% frequency. This is somewhat a concern that should make your flop raise sizing quite large and 100bb deep this makes your strategy more vulnerable to some raise sizes that restrict your strategy when you have no showdown value.
This type of hand can get three bets in quite easily when it hits OTT(xc xc xr on A turn, xc x xr on spade turn, xc xc xc on 6 turn against some sizes) and can lead on also some turns as [A, K, 5, 3] (Q, J depends on Ip cbet frequency) given that IP flop cbetting range don't usually contain this type of offsuit combo. 5 and 3 turns are harder to define, specially when IP may have a high protection betting frequency strategy with mid-low pairs on this type of texture.
Against some players it is better to x/r-shove and against others is better to xc/decide. Apparently against this one I'd choose the last one.
good post. on spade turns, u c/r turn and i assume jam river? that seems a bit thin given i have nut low flush, but protection is somewhat important, tho i think it functions best as a strong bluff catcher versus most turn/river sizes.
True about 83o and 53o, If I'm c/r a ton of non-showdown hands, he can 3b me and put me in tough spot.
Dont really see many strategies where J/Q is a lead card tho as we are not gunna have many Qx and Jx and id expect many strategies to cbet hands like J9 Q9 QT QJ JT with bd flush draw and stuff (1 spade or two clubs).
and yes, i did xc/decide because i figured if he was 3betting as a spaz or weird bluff, that he wudnt jam turn with no equity given i wud flat all my sets/2pr probably so i wud be able to bluff river and win pot if i missed anyway versus those bluffs most of the time.
It probably will depend on what spade turn it is. If it is As-Js I'd be more inclined to x/c turn and x/r river given that his barrel frequency should be higher than low spade turn since his fold equity improve more on high cards when your x/c range is usually quite vulnerable on this texture and on this runout class, when your range doesn't improve very often.
agree that we shud c/c on high spade turns, but on low spade turns his range is stronger when he bets (he will have a higher percent flushes in his betting range than on larger spade turns, and he won't be bluffing as much because its not a great card for his range) and therefore if we raise with the lowest flush possible, i feel we get value cut a lot when we raise turn shove river, dont you think?
Just to clear up, I expect turn to go x-x very often since a good portion of his value cbetting range on this texture isn't strong enough to go for three streets so I am not advocating putting four bets in. It depends also on his bet sizing across the streets, against some players is a clear xc xc xs and against another is a clear xc xc xc.
its interesting because on lower spade turns, since in order for him to keep betting he will generally have more of a polarized range (given a lot of flop betting value range like over pairs and TP combos will check now), i think actually we want to call most of our range at a higher rate on lower spade turns. On higher spade turns, he cud be value betting thinner since its harder for us to continue (like on 6 turn we'd have many more gutshots along with 8x 5x or 3x), thereby making us more likely to call with the bare 8x or 5x we need to defend with have lower equity in general versus his over pairs/overcard that he hit.
So if he vbets thinner, then having some sort of c/r frequency works out better since it punishes him if we raise and doesn't allow him to just check back river a lot. Tho, the issue is that it is a good card for his range, and therefore we do want to do more calling to keep our range a bit stronger.
Given that we are OOP, I'd ship it. Calling makes future streets very difficult (both in extracting value and continuing on missed turns versus aggression) due to position.
deep enough to flat i think
what position's were hero and villain in? blind vs blind?
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