100zoom facing 3rd barrel

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100zoom facing 3rd barrel

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) BN: $90.50
SB: $190.13
BB: $100.00 (Hero)
UTG: $113.29
MP: $130.36
CO: $145.75
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is BB with T T
UTG folds, MP raises to $2.32, 3 folds, Hero calls $1.32
Flop ($5.14) 4 9 6
Hero checks, MP bets $3.00, Hero calls $3.00
Turn ($11.14) 4 9 6 K
Hero checks, MP bets $6.24, Hero calls $6.24
River ($23.62) 4 9 6 K 3
Hero checks, MP bets $18.63, Hero calls $18.63

Hi Everyone,

Is this an easy call on the river?
Villain playing 28/24/5 over ~120 hands

Thanks!

7 Comments

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ein Hund 7 years, 8 months ago

tough spot, its nice to not have the T of clubs and to have the T of spades, but on the other side u block QT ,JT, T8... combos.
the big size on the river sucks... seems like a good hand to call, close though.
after just flatting TT preflop u should mainly c/r this on the flop.

Samu Patronen 7 years, 8 months ago

Pretty close spot I think. Having a Ts is good here, you block like 4 obvious value combos.

His stats suggest that villain might be the loose type who likes to win pots, so I'd probably just press call.

DrCooper 7 years, 8 months ago

My thinking was call with TT without club and fold with a club?

Also I 3bet with small frequency here vs reg. I definitely prefer c/c on flop vs c/r.

ein Hund 7 years, 8 months ago

i think after c/c flop u have to call it down most of the times on thiis runout.
i guess u have TT and JJ here somtimes, with sets and 3 two pairs of 96s as valuerange. u have to get some c/r with TT in imo

ShavronneofUmbra 7 years, 8 months ago

What do you think about Tbet sizing ? I think it looks value,he try to target 9x,overpairs,he could have something like kx clubs ?I guess he will bet bigger with sets and draws.

fefe.p 7 years, 8 months ago

so, firstly you need to have 30% equity vs villains range to make this call profitable (he needs to bluff 30%, because he is never value betting worse). So, I think it´s safe to assume he plays all the non pair spades like this for value (10 combos total), 66, 44, KK and AA (99 slowplays) and AK (not sure how wide he value bets), totalizing 37 combos of value, a decent guess I would say. Knowing that, we calculate that in order for him to be bluffing 30% of the time he must have more than 16 bluff combos. If he bluffs most of his clubs missed FD´s and some 87s we already reach this number. Also, this seems like a spot where villain could be trying to push his range advantage and overbluff, so if my estimations are on point, calling is the correct play with your specific hand. I would fold TT with the T of clubs, as you block some bluffs and unblock value, but this specific combo seems like a very profitable call here!

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