100z ugly river
Posted by Hova
Posted by
Hova
posted in
Low Stakes
100z ugly river
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players)
BN: $75.06
SB: $257.87
BB: $175.19 (Hero)
UTG: $105.08
MP: $113.80
CO: $371.49
SB: $257.87
BB: $175.19 (Hero)
UTG: $105.08
MP: $113.80
CO: $371.49
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is BB with
J
J
, , ,
Flop
($5.40)
2
Q
J
, , ,
Turn
($31.18)
2
Q
J
3
,
River
($78.64)
2
Q
J
3
T
,
villain is nitty preflop 18/15/7 but has WWSF of 62% over 350 hands. RFI MP 20%.
Really unsure how to play this river. Feels like villain can jam whole range and we don't have enough calls after checking. Do we just have to accept we might get exploited here and fold anyway?
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Most players aren't calling a checkraise and a barrel with AK here, so that is heavily discounted. He has some flushes, but 18/15s don't open up suited Aces in MP so A2s-A5s is out. That leaves maybe 6 flushes. He could easily jam QJ, QT, 222 or even TTT here. I'd call here rather happily. You need to win 28% of the time and you'll win closer to 50%.
Do you think QT is a good value-bet from villain? It seems way too thin to me, given that hero will have so many flushes and QJ to call river with. What is MP getting value from with QT on the river aside from KhQx?
I agree Dan I don't think the average 100 reg is shoving those hands, that said I still think JJ is a call but maybe only breakeven from the ranges I plugged in to HoldemEQ.
JJ is a hand you can 3-bet versus a MP open, especially from the BB. I would have raised, not called pre-flop. You could have overbet the turn too, IMO.
Are you sure he only has to be right 28% of the time, Tyler? I know I'm probably wrong but for the sake of compromise if the pot is $75, villian bets $75, he is being paid around 2 to 1ish so he needs to be right ~33%?
No I think you're right Texas 75/(79+75) = 32.7%
Weird pre flop stats for a guy that's opening 20% from MP. Have to assume his RFI is going to increase as his preflop position improves. Oh well no biggie.
I think we can draw some conclusions from his high WWSF that he will for sure be attacking pots but he probably does it in a logical manner. I think we can also assume that he doesn't get to river when he was C/R and then barreled into with complete air. He likely has big combo draws+.
I think we can probably assume he is shoving this river with QJ+ and I think we can assume he gets there with AKhh and maybe 98hh too. My guess would be that he would jam river vs. your check with AA and KK that had a heart since they block your nutted combos.
I think you have a call here if we assume he will jam AA and KK with a heart along with the two pair plus. If he only jams AA with the heart blocker it probably break even with rake and if he jams zero overpairs it's an easy fold but I have to imagine that this guy will jam at least AA with a heart vs. your river check.
I assume his shove means that he is more polarized by flushes and some bluffs. Really do not think that we can beat any portion of his value range. If he wants to bet QJ here, he would choose probably smaller sizing like 25$ or so. About the aces with heard A, I do not believe that people are capable to fold some sets here or the major part of nl100 population, so imo it is quite ambitious to shove here AhAx with intention to make him fold sets.
I was thinking about our thin value bet, but against such a nitty player I really do not have enough confidence.
So I would fold here just because the river is still the most underbluffed street, plus the fact that we are dealing with such a nit. He can not value bet worse and his bluffing frequency is imo too low (especially in this line). Your range is too strong and trying to exploit it does not make much sense to me, because in practice the river shove does not make some huge fold equity. If I would know that villain have some good reads on me like I am folding JJ here, then I would adjust and start calling sets here.
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