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100z - hero fold?

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

100z - hero fold?

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) BN: $48.50
SB: $149.88 (Hero)
BB: $203.18
UTG: $105.66
MP: $135.80
CO: $106.70
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is SB with 9 9
UTG folds, MP raises to $2.60, 2 folds, Hero calls $2.10, BB calls $1.60
Flop ($7.80) 7 8 9
Hero checks, BB bets $5.48, MP calls $5.48, Hero calls $5.48
Turn ($24.24) 7 8 9 K
Hero checks, BB checks, MP checks
River ($24.24) 7 8 9 K 4
Hero bets $18.94, BB raises to $62.50, MP folds

villain very LAG 32/24/11 58 wwsf.

Should we find a fold exploitative hero fold here? Feels like he is not going to bluff with this line but could have went for failed x/r on turn. Also never expect 77/88 to go for this line. Ofc I am at absolute top of range but he raised rather quickly and I don't think he is thinking very deeply in general.

thanks

11 Comments

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devwil 6 years, 3 months ago

Villain's line is so confusing and you're so underrepped that I think folding could be a mistake.

Honestly, the hands that make the most sense to me for villain here are TT or maybe JJ, even if they may not flat preflop with both (though I suspect their 11% 3bet is not linear and they may not squeeze BB super often).

Leading the overpair with the straight draw makes some sense. OTT, checking the K makes some sense as it hits your floats (though not that often: you probably 3bet AK and KQ is only part of your range).

OTR, with strong blockers to the nut straight, I think villain may be turning their hand into a bluff with TT/JJ. (Heck, this may even just be Tx.)

Because their line with a value hand that beats you just doesn't make a ton of sense to me. Why lead flop with a straight then check the turn?

The river card changes nothing, btw.

So I'm saying it's a call.

Pokerlogical 6 years, 3 months ago

Agree with the fold this just looks a lot like JT or T6s or 56s. Dont really think that hes expecting you to fold a set here.

TT and JJ gets squeezed close to 100%

Mancuso 6 years, 3 months ago

I'm 3betting this pre unles BB is fishy.
As played I'm calling the river. very laggish villain. You dominate values and a villain with those stats is capable of making some moves like these even in 3-way pots (mainly when they perceive some weakness by leading and everyone checking behind OTT).

ChaoRen123 6 years, 3 months ago

Hey, I'm never folding here given that villain could definitely value bet worse. I also prefer a raise OTF, we need a lot of protection/value against bb's wide range.

ChaoRen123 6 years, 3 months ago

Also never expect 77/88 to go for this line

What do you expect then, straights only? This is imo way too assumptive and I assume you have no justifications to confirm that...

Hova 6 years, 3 months ago

Raising flop is questionable given BB has way more straights than me and I never get it in vs worse. Then I just play huge pot oop with face up range.

For value I expect straights only yeah. Anyway 77/88 is only 6 combos, JTo/56o/T6s is 35combos so even if it's assumptive it's not a huge deal. Knowing if he bluffs here enough is the real question and I don't think the answer is yes.

ChaoRen123 6 years, 3 months ago

Ok, I think I kind of missread the profile here. Is he a reggish LAG guy or more on the fishy side? Given his line, I tend to think he is a fish, and versus a fish I think this is impossible to fold.

alpharebel 6 years, 3 months ago

I have 2 questions on this
1 Should we be betting here to protect are hand Why are we giving free cards to hands like 64 , AJ ?
2 As played when we get to the riv should we only be betting Polarized J10 , 56 , A10 , A6 and bet bigger?

korn1337 6 years, 3 months ago

If you have a good grasp on the field your playing in you can make the decision on the river if they show up often enough with weaker or bluff enough.

Raising the Flop would be a pretty big mistake, given the amount of straight combos possible and our holding even unblocking them.

weltcheftrainer 6 years, 3 months ago

Against "villain very LAG 32/24/11 58 wwsf." this is a very very easy call for me.
His turn check makes a straight very unlikely. I think he will overbluff here a lot, especially given his 58wwsf.

frontdoorbackdoor 6 years, 3 months ago

The way i see it is your range is perceived to be very capped after calling flop so it is easy for villain to be overbluffing this spot. It is quite assumptive to say that villain is going to be going for x/r on this turn very often after leading flop as would expect the most common play to be betting turn with his straights. Also he has a ton hands on this river like Tx and 6x that were trying to lead flop for a cheap turn that he can turn into bluff. And then you include his stats as being very laggy so I'd be calling.

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