100NL Zoom 4B pot deep facing CR

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100NL Zoom 4B pot deep facing CR

BN: $205.77 (Hero)
SB: $121.55
BB: $341.29
UTG: $100
HJ: $127.46
CO: $101.50
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, Hero raises to $2, SB folds, BB raises to $7, Hero raises to $16.06, BB calls $9.06
Flop ($35.62) 4 6 Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero bets $14.15, BB raises to $44, Hero calls $29.85
Turn ($123.62) 4 6 Q Q (2 Players)
BB checks, Hero checks
River ($123.62) 4 6 Q Q 8 (2 Players)
BB bets $79
Villains is 23/19 with 1/25 3-Bet so far (72 hands), kinda gross flop spot (don't think i can CB so small and fold though). Was really looking to construct some ranges that he plays this way. So here goes - OTF he can CR QQ for sure and i expect him to chk turn with his quads a ton b/c people like to chk when they have the nuts :) i don't expect him to CR AQ otf here this deep although i could be wrong, (& if he does i expect him to insta barrel turn with his trips) which means his turn range is gonna boats and some flush draws. I don't expect him to have really many flush draws and also i have nut flush blocker. Does he 3B 66 & 44 preflop? Perhaps this deep it would make sense. His value range is extremely thin, but i am making assumptions based on a small sample of hands and perhaps i am putting to much stock in this??? Thoughts on all streets appreciated thanks a lot

6 Comments

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iMRUSh 12 years, 2 months ago
With queen i think he's need to bet the turn for value, and also protection. And in this deep play, he need to bet most of the time the nuts too, if he want to play a big pot and not so tricky. As because it's a small sample, and it's a btn vs bb situation 205bb eff, at the river i can put him a range something like this:

[FONT=courier new][SIZE=12]
[b]Asztal: [/b]Q:diamond:6:diamond:4:heart: Q:club: 8:club:
[b]       Részesedés   Nyert  Osztozás[/b]
[b]BU   [/b]      44.44%  44.44%     0.00% { AdAh }
[b]BB   [/b]      55.56%  55.56%     0.00% { KK-JJ, 88, 66, 44, AQs, KQs, QJs }
[/SIZE][/FONT]

U have 44% against this and to call u need 39%. If u put him a more thighter range (start from pre) your odds is going better and better. With AA pre in general he 5b. Rarely his got 87dd, and rarely his not barell that because he does not want to face a raise on the turn, but most of the time he’s not value bet that at the river. If he put only him to QQ+ u got 82,25%, just vs QQ, KK u got 85,71%, vs KK-QQ,AQs,KQs u got 60%. Your AA and the QQ on the board had a card removal effect and thats why your odds is better than the man would believe it at the first try. So if u can put him only for nuts, trips u can fold that but with this much information maybe u can't. Vs. this KK-QQ,66,44,AQs,KQs u got 37.5% its fairly close too. So in long run i don't think you loose much money on this call. That's why and for the information I call. Sry for my english is preety weak. GL
John Mackay 12 years, 2 months ago
No worries about the English brah keep on posting and ill try and correct you if I see any mistakes ( hope it helps) as for the call I am still torn. Recently I have seen tight fish show up with the most random hands which makes me kinda makes me wanna look this guy up a bit more
John Mackay 12 years, 2 months ago
Also I think it's a mistake to assume he never checks a boat or quads ott, fish freeze up when they're nutted and go into slow play mode without considering ranges or value or anything for that matter
event78 12 years, 2 months ago
Not sure about your sizing preflop, because you're deep you should 4bet a bit bigger without read?

Most regs don't c/r TP deep in 4bets pot so his value range river is 44/66/QQ/Q6s?/Q4s?/57s?/KK? (very unlikely).I expect him to bet his boats sometimes to build the pot and to get value from draws/Qx/OVP (but a c/r turn for value is not impossible). Your range looks like AA/KK (Qx/fd sometimes). He needs to delay bluff river (if he thinks you have a lot of missdraws river and/or that you bet your Qx most of the time turn and/or he can get you off AA/KK) cause I don't think he value bets worse.

Close spot, I think it's not bad to fold here without reads cause most people don't fold AA/KK in this spot and not so many regs bluff with this line when your hand looks like KK/AA and it's so easy to click call. It's not like you're getting exploited cause you'd call with your Qx hands/AA/KK without a heart maybe?.
John Mackay 12 years, 2 months ago
^^^ yh i like sizing larger when oop since i am not going to be 4B bluffing at such a high frequency when deep but in position b/c i'm gonna be bluffing a lot i like keeping it 2x +2bb as standard (which is larger than my normal min sizing). Agree with the analysis of the hand, i don't hate a fold either .

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