100NL Z
Posted by IMaufJute2
Posted by
IMaufJute2
posted in
Low Stakes
100NL Z
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players)
BN: $98.50
SB: $438.33
BB: $474.86
UTG: $155.04 (Hero)
MP: $53.54
CO: $100.00
SB: $438.33
BB: $474.86
UTG: $155.04 (Hero)
MP: $53.54
CO: $100.00
Villain is a regular TAG. Hero is viewed as TAG also.
Villain made an odd thing. He did let the timebank start running for like 10sec before he 3b preflop.
Villain made an odd thing. He did let the timebank start running for like 10sec before he 3b preflop.
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is UTG with
K
K
, , , ,
Flop
($23.00)
9
6
9
,
Turn
($49.00)
9
6
9
3
,
River
($110.44)
9
6
9
3
5
Loading 7 Comments...
Given your assumptions:
Does villain have flatting range in these positions? (SB-UTG)
How wide is he 3betting pre?
What does your call3b range looks like preflop?
Is villain capable of bluffing? (OTR)
Worst hand in villains valuerange? (OTR)
Dont know about flatting tendecies
He had tag stats on his 3bet. 8-9%
My call3b would mostly be high suited/cinnectors. And 88-QQ.
I consider it unlikely for villain to bluff here.
His value range is AA/KK. I don't think he bets QQ here.
Given that analysis, you have an easy decision, not?
If villain would have access (hypothetically) to your analysis of this situation, he should bluf any two on the river as a bluf, you agree? If you hardly ever have 9x+ and fold everything else in your range.
I agree with you to some extent that villain won't bluf a very high frequency. Yet I also don't want to fold my entire range, that seems (way) too exploitable.
This is why I asked what your call3b range looks like. The more sets and 9x are in your range, the more acceptable a fold with KK becomes for me. The less you have those, the more you ought to calldown KK here. You don't have a solid enough read on villain apparently, to just fold your entire range in this spot.
Is villain capable of 3betting 98s T9s 78s SB vs UTG?
If it is not and he only 3barrel AA-KK for value, yeah it's an easy decision
Well the thing is also people think they play a polarized range. But in these sitiutions they always tend to have value.
And it was also a timing tell from my part that also led me to believe he had value here.
But for sure in the long run against an opponent capable of bluffing here we must call.
Villain is probably v betting AA or KK+ here. I would give him two combos of 9x and two combos of 78s, so basically he has 10 value combos in this spot. You beat no value bets, so he will have to bluff like 5 combos for you to profit from calling here. I mean he definitely gets to the river with more than 5 potential bluffs, but the question is will he fire with 5 of them.
Like other posters said previously, you need some information about his 3 betting range to really have a good idea about what kinds of hands he gets to the river with. How much 9x he will have depends a decent bit on this. Also his AQ combos depend on whether or not he has a flatting range here.
I would advise in this type of spot you just go with your read. I'm leaning towards a fold given the limited information.
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