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100NL - Top Pair Facing Overbet on River

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

100NL - Top Pair Facing Overbet on River

Pre-Flop
Crappy position but my hand is strong enough to raise against a sole limper. I raise slightly larger than usual due to being OOP

Flop
No reads on Big Blind as I have only just sat down at table. Over 9 hands he is 11/11 & hasn't gone to show down. He hasn't done anything out of line.

I elect for just under 1/2 pot cbet for value. I expect to get floated on this board by regs.

Turn
Again, I fire a turn c-bet for 55% of pot. I am charging draws and need to balance my range when I fire the turn with air. I don't like x/c'ing or x/r'ing and we get value from weaker Q's and 88-JJ plus FD's

River
My plan was to b/f Heart or Spade rivers and x/c non-completed flushes to allow him to bluff his missed draws. However, when he overbets, this throws this into question.

Are we calling here? He's never value-betting worse and our required equity to call is 37%.

Is there enough missed draws in his range to justify a call?

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