100NL - Top Pair Facing Overbet on River
Posted by johnmorgan
Posted by
johnmorgan
posted in
Low Stakes
100NL - Top Pair Facing Overbet on River
Pre-Flop
Crappy position but my hand is strong enough to raise against a sole limper. I raise slightly larger than usual due to being OOP
Flop
No reads on Big Blind as I have only just sat down at table. Over 9 hands he is 11/11 & hasn't gone to show down. He hasn't done anything out of line.
I elect for just under 1/2 pot cbet for value. I expect to get floated on this board by regs.
Turn
Again, I fire a turn c-bet for 55% of pot. I am charging draws and need to balance my range when I fire the turn with air. I don't like x/c'ing or x/r'ing and we get value from weaker Q's and 88-JJ plus FD's
River
My plan was to b/f Heart or Spade rivers and x/c non-completed flushes to allow him to bluff his missed draws. However, when he overbets, this throws this into question.
Are we calling here? He's never value-betting worse and our required equity to call is 37%.
Is there enough missed draws in his range to justify a call?
Loading 6 Comments...
River
its fold, I don't think villan has enough bluff in his hand. Most of reg would raise on the flop or on turn with FD more specially with NFD.
So his hands tends more towards better 2 pair+, so def his value combos more then his bluff combos.
Value combo : 66,77,67s,98s,AQ some he may slow plays QQ+ pre. = 19 combo
Bluff combo should all hearts combination : 78s,T9s,JTs AJs,ATs, KJs, KTs -= 7 com
out of which i can guess that reg would raise NFD at on flop or on turn
so i would tend towards fold here.
Turn i would like to ck back most of time then evaluate on river
Not that trivial of a fold to me. As far as regs tend to raise FD on earlier streets, as far they tend to raise trips also.
Would discount QQ/TT due to his line pre mostly and AQ due to the betsizing OTR.
Therefore we unblock all the FDs villains valuerange gets pretty narrow and i would tend to call here. If hes on QT or 77, 6x....so be it
Fold is fine exploit vs this specific sizing. Never fold if he bets smaller, but this tend to be very underbluffed. River overbets is a very underbluffed node.
If i have any reason to belive he is voilative profile i Will call tho. Just a bunch of potential bluffs he could have and he reps narrow value range
Can u share the results ??
Thanks for all the comments guys. Do you think missed spades make up any of his range with flop floats?
He had AA.
Yeah I agree, I think the population's tendencies in river overbets at these stakes tend to be more skewed towards value rather than bluffs.
Check back...We're OOP? Do you mean x/c?
yes x/c
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