100NL Should i be bluffing here?
Posted by PhisyFishy
Posted by
PhisyFishy
posted in
Low Stakes
100NL Should i be bluffing here?
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players)
BB: $100.00
UTG: $104.80
MP: $67.55
CO: $112.10
BN: $114.60 (Hero)
SB: $212.95
UTG: $104.80
MP: $67.55
CO: $112.10
BN: $114.60 (Hero)
SB: $212.95
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is BN with
K
A
, , , , , , ,
Standard.
Flop
($33.50)
8
2
J
,
Bad flop, just giving up.
Turn
($33.50)
8
2
J
Q
,
River
($33.50)
8
2
J
Q
9
,
Pre and flop i think are standard.
However given that i'm at the bottom of my range by the river, and beat approximately 0 hands, should i be bluffing? I think i probably should. But do you think i should be betting turn and river? Just turn? Just river?
Basically i think i have to bluff at some point in the hand. He can have flushes, but so can i and this is the worst hand ill get to the river with. But not sure which street(s) is best for it... thoughts?
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I think u have to bluff here. Villain is OOP and checks all streets, he never has a flush or a Ten here (except u have history with him of a similar spot). It's is your worst hand in your range, so it is okay to bluff. And when u look up hands u would be v-betting (thinly) here, there are maybe ATs (if u squeeze this) and QQ (sometimes xback turn, but definitely v-betting river. So make it like 13$, it should be enough.
I wouldn't be value betting QQ here. I agree he doesn't have many flushes, but i'm not sure why you don't think he can have a T? Do you think he leads the river with a straight? I'd be pretty surprised if he did.
I think u have to bluff here. Villain is OOP and checks all streets, he never has a flush or a Ten here (except u have history with him of a similar spot). It's is your worst hand in your range, so it is okay to bluff. And when u look up hands u would be v-betting (thinly) here, there are maybe ATs (if u squeeze this) and QQ (sometimes xback turn, but definitely v-betting river. So make it like 13$, it should be enough.
I would bet here, you can get a lot of folds from hands that beat you at showdown.Its always Hard to call without a club.
Don't know about you, but I'd check flop and turn a bit often with the Ac. The Ac and even Kc is on your range, so I think a bet OTR has good credit and FE for a bet like $13 (need to win 28% at least) or even a $18 bet (35% at least). Bluff turn AND river is less EV, I think. Bluff turn is good because you don't let him bluff u out the river, but I couldn't say which is better (bluff turn or river). I'm confident that bluffing one of them is +EV than checking behind both. I'm a NL25 player though, don't know how it works on higher stakes.
This seems like a good analysis, thanks. Yeah i definitely do have some Ac and Kc in my flop check-back range so think i definitely need to be bluffing, and yeah a one-street bluff probably does make more sense.
The problem is when i check back the turn im not sure i still ever have the Kc or Ac, which leaves me very vulnerable to a river xR. However i don't think a turn bet gets as many folds as a river one so i really can't decide which is better!
@ phishyfishy - what range do you put him on for calling the raise and the squeeze preflop ?
I personally don't think i'd have a single hand that calls this open and then flats a squeeze OOP.
The range that other people do this with i'd expect to be very pocket-pair heavy. Something like 77-TT/JJ. Then maybe AQs/AJs but thats really about it.
Now that i write it out like that, if his predicted range is accurate then he is capped at a T high flush on this board and so i should definitely be bluffing, and probably a turn and river bluff will be good.
Such a simple question has made this spot quite a bit clearer for me! Thanks :)
He is capped at T high flushes ? Im not sure im following you here. If AJs AQs and 77-JJ are in his range, he can have the nut flush or a set (88, JJ). With the nut flush, he is obviously not folding, but he should fold his set to a turn and river bet.
He is capped at T high flush because he only calls pre with AJs and AQs, not AQo or AJo, and because the J and the Q of clubs are on the board... he can't have the Ac. In order to have the Ac he would would have to call with Axo, which i dont think he does.
So he can't have the nutflush, but he can have T high flush, and as you mentioned some sets. Therefore i think betting turn and river is probably best!
Edit: More simply... he cant have AcQc or AcJc because the Qc and Jc are on the board.
yeah you're right, I didnt notice that.
Good question!
I'm not quite sure how to play this hand. I think checking down is Ok, as is bet turn bet river, as is bet river. Go with your read.
do you think that if hero is betting river after cb flop and turn, he can get called by set (or even AJ, AQ) , as a bluff catcher ? Because AJ/AQ is essentialy the same as a set here for vilain since hero isnt betting anything between TP and set anyway.. Actually, hero seems really polarized on a spot like this.
Nice analysis, cpau. think it depends a lot on player's tendencies.
Cool and fairly frequent spot. I guess to a certain extent it depends on history and how you play Ac/Kc, if history is relevant. Bet turn/river or just river depending on that (if relevant). Otherwise I'm gonna take the brave & high road here and say I agree with sauce. I know, controversial stance! It feels somewhat off to me to check down this hand though. What hands would you be bluffing with Ben? Do you consider our showdown value relevant at all?
IMO it's standard to play preflop like that. I'd rather prefer to stab once at pot either on the flop or turn after he check backs twice to you, I think it's definitely ok to stab there to get him to fold Pocket Pair hands etc. I think on the river after everything gets there it's going to be a big mistake to bet even though you may get him to fold low PP hands, its only a small percentage of his range that he may even decide to call you with holding a club
IMO its standard pre. I would like to c-bet flop since we have no club and we do block AcKc I think he flats there with pairs a lot and getting him off on the flop is a better then trying to bet river. If called giving up, we still get to the river assuming he never leads turn. I just don't like betting river at all we don't rep much as played, but if you do bet what sizing would you use?
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