[100NL, sh]Drawy board, river decision.
Posted by NoobYourself
Posted by
NoobYourself
posted in
Low Stakes
[100NL, sh]Drawy board, river decision.
BB: 223.04
UTG: 100
HJ: 71.21
CO: 100 (Hero)
BN: 100
SB: 119
UTG: 100
HJ: 71.21
CO: 100 (Hero)
BN: 100
SB: 119
Preflop
(1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
A
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to 3, BN calls 3, SB folds, BB folds
UTG folds, HJ folds, Hero raises to 3, BN calls 3, SB folds, BB folds
Flop
(7.50)
7
T
8
(2 Players)
Hero bets 4,
BN calls 4
Turn
(15.50)
5
(2 Players)
Hero bets 8,
BN calls 8
River
(31.50)
4
(2 Players)
Hero bets 19,
BN raises to 44
What do you think is his range ? I need to win 20% of time, the play is looking a bit strange, no turn raise, it looks like a perfect spot to do it (am I wrong?), but maybe he just almost always get that J9...
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In order for betting all streets to be good (ignoring the times he raises), he will have to call with worse. On this board run out I doubt many regulars would. If he doesn't call with less then 2pair then betting the river here seems like a bad idea. I'd be interested to hear others thoughts on betting river though.
In spots similar to this my plan is usually to bet flop and turn for reasons mentioned above and then decide on various rivers. If river is a brick, maybe I'll plan to check call if I think missed draws will bluff, or if many draws improve on the river and villain doesn't turn weak showdown-able hands into bluffs often, then I'll check and fold.
"I need to win 20% of time, the play is looking a bit strange, no turn raise, it looks like a perfect spot to do it (am I wrong?), but maybe he just almost always get that J9... "
Well it's not only J9 you're behind, 6x is now a str8 and a flush is now possible. I haven't run this through flopzilla or stove but after your opponent raises on the river I think this is a very questionable spot to do anything other then fold. When you say "it looks like a perfect spot" why is that? In my mind the default range I give to a unknown reg that calls flop, turn and raises river on this runout improves enough to expect one pair to be second best very often.
I bet small because I look more like a draw like this, so I can 3 barrell and get called by some JT, T9, JJ, things like that, and lose less if I face a raise (what I was expecting from a better hand on many turns), it looks better to me than two almost pot barrells on flop&turn and then being in a weird spot since we are oop.
As played it's a fold for sure .Hard to imagine he will bluff here
"I'm talking about raising turn, if you get a good hand" Alright, I agree that many strong hands would raise on the turn. I also expect that to be true on the flop as well, so when he does not raise this texture (flop or turn) I'm not expecting him to have main sets or twopairs. However sets and twopair become a much thinner raise on this river where a 4straight is out and a flush is possible, so in general such hands would be much less common for a regulars river raising range. Since those hands are unlikely due to his flop and turn actions and now much less likely to be raised on this river, I think they are one of the last parts of his range I'm concerned about.
"I bet small because I look more like a draw like this, so I can 3 barrel and get called by some JT, T9, JJ,"
This doesn't make sense to me. Lets say you play your draw the exact same and your opponent knew that. What makes you think river calls with any top pair hands would be part of his strategy, especially on this board where many draws were completed. I would expect the opposite.
I think having a bet size of around 80% pot for flop and turn is a better strategy.
Many draws see a river and most have significant equity so by having a large bet size we are reducing how much villain could potentially win if he calls flop and turn and hits river, while also getting him to put more in on streets where he is behind. That makes the situation less favorable for draws in his range. The bet size you used allows him to see a river for much less while having deeper stacks on the river. The further you go in that direction the less of a mistake your opponent is making by calling two streets with low equity hands.
"lose less if I face a raise (what I was expecting from a better hand on many turns)"
I think that is a secondary concern, because often draws will call twice to see a river. If that's the case get as much as possible from those hands. A important point here is to also have sets and better in your range with the same betsize so your opponents can't confidently semi-bluff raise their draws because they would risk having to fold their equity when they face a re-raise. That's more or less how I play these spots and when I face a raise with a weaker part of my value range here (AA) it is a easy fold, because the range that shares my previous actions and continues vs a raise is strong.
"it looks better to me than two almost pot barrells on flop&turn and then being in a weird spot since we are oop."
You'll be in many weird river spots with AA on this flop and turn regardless of your betsize. However with larger flop and turn bets you're causing your opponent to make a larger mistake and consequently win more from draws and pairs that call twice.
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