100nl sb vs bb river decision
Posted by Andrei
Posted by
Andrei
posted in
Low Stakes
100nl sb vs bb river decision
UTG: $113.65
HJ: $106.80
CO: $118.20
BN: $260.30
SB: $135.40 (Hero)
BB: $106
HJ: $106.80
CO: $118.20
BN: $260.30
SB: $135.40 (Hero)
BB: $106
Bb is a reg 23 18 , 3bet vs sb 18% , call open bb 16% , sb fold vs bb steal 47% , bet vs missed cbet ip 82% ,Wtsd% 28 on 15k hands .I play almost every day with him ,probably my image is agressive .I'm c/r as pfr 7% and i open 33% from sb .
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
Q
A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $3, BB calls $2
Flop
($6.50)
6
Q
4
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
BB bets $3,
Hero raises to $9,
BB calls $6
I know he is not calling with PP because i've seen him 3bet with those ,so his range for bet call should be one pair+ ,fd+(probably with nut fd will stackoff) .
Turn
($24.50)
6
Q
4
9
(2 Players)
Hero bets $20,
BB calls $20
River
($64.50)
6
Q
4
9
7
(2 Players)
Hero bets $103.40, and is all in
I have 74$ and the pot is 64 .I don't like betting something like 25 or 30$ because looks weak and a good reg might exploit me (probably not at 100nl ,but who knows ) and i think i will miss some value .Not to mention that a shove looks more bluffy than a half pot bet .
It is resonable to think that he might call with almost any Q and thus my shove is +ev ?
It is resonable to think that he might call with almost any Q and thus my shove is +ev ?
Loading 4 Comments...
I really don't see him calling with anything worse though and essentially your turning your hand into a bluff to get him off AQ.
It´s always amazing how small changes in betsize changes the entire situation - especially as Villain in your scenario was correct in calling with a flushdraw (due to implied odds) whereas in my scenario he wouldn´t.
As played, seriously, I´m not sure, I guess shoving is too thin, betting smaller with the intention to fold (I know it sucks) or even x/f (depending on his bluff% at the river, but with 28% WTSD% I would expect him to take his showdown value more often than not!) would´ve been better, imho.
still i think even if u had about a potsize shove left, shoving would be close.
imo this is a lot dependent on your reads about villain. do u think he`s capable of turning some made hands liek weak Qx into a bluff once u check the river?
i don`t see too much of a bluffing range we can rep here once that heart hits the river. another important point though if u guys have kind of an aggressive history is u having the Qh. i don`t see too many possible flushes in his range since we block all those Qhxh combos and i would assume he`d fastplay most of his nfd kombos and his kombodraws like 85hh,53hh. so putting all this together i if he`s capable of turning his hand into a bluff in such spots i would also consider x/calling.
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