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100NL River Donk

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Posted by posted in Low Stakes

100NL River Donk

SB: $101.75
BB: $110.64 (Hero)
UTG: $116.13
HJ: $100
CO: $118.90
BN: $105.96
Villain's probably a reg, 27/24 over 200 hands.
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt J T
UTG folds, HJ raises to $2.63, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $1.63
Flop ($5.76) T 5 Q (2 Players)
Hero checks, HJ checks
Turn ($5.76) T 5 Q K (2 Players)
Hero checks, HJ bets $4.21, Hero calls $4.21
I don't think he can be too strong here. Flushes are unlikely, Qx (including KQ and QT) are unlikely, same with KJ/J9/TT/QQ/KK/55. Not sure about AK/AJ.

I didn't want to turn my hand into a bluff so I decided to x/c and expect to be good fairly often if river gets checked through.
River ($14.18) T 5 Q K J (2 Players)
Hero bets $12
Pretty much the worst card for me. I lose to any Ax and any random heart and can get bluffed very easily if we have the best hand.
I don't think he has Qh basically ever. He can have Ah but I decide donking will likely have a higher EV than checking and losing 100% of the time.

Thoughts?

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