100nl OOP decision vs 3barrel
Posted by prodonk
Posted by
prodonk
posted in
Low Stakes
100nl OOP decision vs 3barrel
BN: $242.01
SB: $100.90
BB: $278.31 (Hero)
UTG: $108.93
HJ: $104.50
CO: $99.50
SB: $100.90
BB: $278.31 (Hero)
UTG: $108.93
HJ: $104.50
CO: $99.50
Villain is good reg, 18/16, raise 1st UTG 16%, over 3.8k hands. Cbets 60/48/50, seems to be kinda barrel happy vs me.
Preflop
($1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
Q
UTG raises to $3, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $2
UTG raises to $3, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, SB folds, Hero calls $2
Flop
($6.50)
3
A
8
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
UTG bets $4,
Hero calls $4
Turn
($14.50)
3
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
UTG bets $9,
Hero calls $9
River
($32.50)
7
(2 Players)
Hero checks,
UTG bets $20
So given our history I don't have lots of showdowns vs him, I showed some bluffcatchers, most of the hands as aggressor he barreled me off my hand, double barrels big pocket pairs IP, shuts down on scary rivers. One more thing, I flat all AK combos here vs this Villain. So is call ok here?
Thanks!
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ok without math i would fold, let s try math
preflop, given your stats he has
22+,A2s+,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s,AJo+,KQo, 214 combos
http://fr.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Victoire Égalité
MP2 46.97% 43.58% 3.39% { 22+, A2s+, KTs+, QTs+, JTs, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, AJo+, KQo }
BB 53.03% 49.64% 3.39% { AsQc }
flop, he CB 60%, so we need to find around 60% of 214 = 129 combos, i expct a reg to cb morre this board
on this board it could be
88+,66,33,A2s+,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,KdTd,QdTd,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,8d7d,7d6d,AJo+ 148 combos, so 69% CB
http://fr.pokerstrategy.com
Tableau : 3hAd8d
Equity Victoire Égalité
MP2 33.92% 30.02% 3.90% { 88+, 66, 33, A2s+, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, AJo+ }
BB 66.08% 62.19% 3.90% { AsQc }
turn is a bad boar to barrel so i expect him to be valuebetting or having a draw
so maybe
88+,33,A2s+,KdQd,KdJd,QdJd,KdTd,QdTd,JdTd,Td9d,9d8d,8d7d,7d6d,AJo+
http://fr.pokerstrategy.com
Tableau : 3hAd8d3c
Equity Victoire Égalité
MP2 28.96% 22.47% 6.50% { 88+, 33, A2s+, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, AJo+ }
BB 71.04% 64.54% 6.50% { AsQc }
river is still a bad board to bluff so i give him a value range
AA,88,33,AQs+,AQo+
http://fr.pokerstrategy.com
Tableau : 3hAd8d3c7s
Equity Victoire Égalité
MP2 84.21% 68.42% 15.79% { AA, 88, 33, AQs+, AQo+ }
BB 15.79% 0.00% 15.79% { AsQc }
pot odds are 20/(20+32.5)=38%>>>15% so we fold
Thanks, very good job, it's just I believe this specific villain will try to barrel me off some pairs between 88 and AA he thinks I might have + let's say AT-AQ with his missed draws. If I knew he never barrels missed draws OTR river I'd agree it's an easy fold...
if he 3 barrels all his missed draw we can call we have 54% vs 38% pot odds
http://fr.pokerstrategy.com
Equity Victoire Égalité
MP2 45.01% 38.24% 6.77% { AA, 88, 33, A2s+, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, AJo+ }
BB 54.99% 48.22% 6.77% { AsQc }
if he take his shodown equity with his weakest top pair we have to callhttp://fr.pokerstrategy.com Equity Victoire ÉgalitéMP2 53.47% 44.54% 8.93% { AA, 88, 33, AQs+, A8s-A7s, A3s, KdQd, KdJd, QdJd, KdTd, QdTd, JdTd, Td9d, 9d8d, 8d7d, 7d6d, AQo+ }BB 46.53% 37.60% 8.93% { AsQc }
if you have read he can 3 barrel bluff such a bad board we have to call (i m quite suprised and maybe i play too weak since i reallyu dont think many villains will barrel bluf these boards curious to have opinions
Pot odds is 38% or 28%?
Pot odds is 27.5% actually, I'm not saying he bluffs every missed fd, but he just bets some of them, even if he bets like half of his missed bluffs, calling down should be fine imo.
You are near the top of your range, Villian would valuet bet AQ and maybe worse, the FD missed, he barrels enough and the pot odds are great.
Definitely calling.9
That seems like the widest range possible to me, and it`s highly questionable whether this nit triple barrels all flush draws and 100%.So if we take off 50% out of ^ flush draw combos, we only have 26%.Folding 100%.
I have to admit that his stats dont look too maniac to me, more standard regish. Most regs wont try to barrel you off an a on a brick-paired board that is a high without a read
18/16 is tight, but 16% EP open isn't.
I'd value AJ in his spot here, so I don't think folding AQ which beats that should fold.
Please note that I never fold the river.
Don't think you're making much money either way.
You need to defend roughly the top 33% of your range, and AQ certainly is top 33% in this spot, since you only have AK and big slowplays for better hands.
That was my point, AKo and 88 isn't enough to defend here, AQ obviously is kinda close, so do you think it should be optimal to fold here AxQd and call all other AQ combos?
Sigh calling here. Also if this dude is 18/16 and opens 16% from utg, he should be opening the same set of hands from every position. Duno if UTG should be 3 streeting AJ tho
i would call here....fold if i hold the A or Q of diamonds without much thinking
LUCA Ad is on the board, but that's what I think our best option is, call with any Q without Qd
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