100NL KQ TP in squeezed pot,

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100NL KQ TP in squeezed pot,

CO: 96.50
BN: 236.74
SB: 112.70 (Hero)
BB: 104.60
UTG: 175.80
HJ: 143.15
Preflop (1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K Q
HJ folds, CO raises to 3, BN calls 3, Hero raises to 13, UTG folds, CO calls 10, BN folds
Flop (30.50) K J 4 (3 Players)
Hero bets 15, CO calls 15
Turn (60.50) Q (3 Players)

Hi,

CO plays 26/20 on 10k hands, 64% fold to 3bet, 61% fold to SQZ.

BTN is the spot, plays 52/0 on 100 hands.

Pre Im trying to iso the fish, who called with all sorts of crap and I dont want to incentivice BB to squeeze here.

Reg calls, so what is your gameplan for this hand?

I thought I could go half pot flop, half pot turn here, but then there are many bad turn / river runouts if we get to see both cards so maybe I should bet flop like 23$ and shove turn?

As played, what do you do on the turn? Villain has only 68.50$ left effectively.

I feel like the Q doesnt really improve me too much, I mean I beat AK now but he may fold that to a turnbet anyways.

bet 1/2/fold is kinda meh as well, and a shove might be overplayed...


7 Comments

Loading 7 Comments...

CombatCarl 10 years, 10 months ago

Squeeze pre is good.

In a squeeze pot, going half pot is big enough so go half pot again on turn and decide river.

I was gonna say bigger cbet on flop since it's wet but I think that's actually wrong.


Chael Sonnen 10 years, 9 months ago

I would bet bigger on this board. Around 60%-65%, to set up a pot-sized turn shove on nearly every card.

Villian doesn't have too many flushes here. ATdd, maybe JTdd and T9dd, and he could have raised them on the flop.

He has enough hands pair + SD to stack off here.


CombatCarl 10 years, 9 months ago

That was my first impression is to bomb flop and shove turn but that's a 4bet pot play, I think. Aren't we supposed to size it better for three streets?

Chael Sonnen 10 years, 9 months ago

There's just over a PSB left. If go <50% on turn, you'd give him a million:1 on a river call.
Betting a little bigger sets up a shove. You want to have more fold equity on a board where you're going to shove a lot of semi-bluffs.

CombatCarl 10 years, 9 months ago

Yeah, ok, I was thinking our hand is pretty strong which I thought meant no huge bets and 1/2 pot in squeeze pot isn't exactly small, but I see what you mean with the balance thing(bluff/value) and the calling range being pivotal on the flop or by turn.

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 9 months ago

$18-$21 is fine on the flop. Flushes are a very small portion of his range, so I'm not that worried about it. Betting the turn around $32-35 will put him on same decision of bigger bets, which is to shove or fold. If he calls and a diamond hits on the river is a weird spot and I'm not sure about it. I don't see any AdK combos folding a turn bet around $30 on this stakes and may fold the river if don't improve. 

Arthur R 10 years, 9 months ago

I think you dont have value bet on turn vs regs range and can XF and be unexploited . If u count this in flopzilla or other staff u will notice that  our valuebet here starts with set of Jacks


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