100NL Interesting Tight fold on river
Posted by Ryan
Posted by Ryan posted in Low Stakes
100NL Interesting Tight fold on river
Hero raises K:club:Q:club: to $3.50 UTG
UTG+1 calls w 100bb (20/10 over 61 hands, seems to be playing pretty tight and reasonable, his stats were slightly tighter in hand, these are the stats after the hand completed, so his VPIP is higher because of this)
BB defends w 50bb stack
Flop 4:club:7:club:6:diamond: Pot = $10.00
BB checks
Hero bets $7.50
UTG+1 calls
BB folds
Turn 9:c;lub: Pot = $24
Hero bets $17(I went bigger to extract extra value from PP's that hold a club or that get sticky on turn.)
UTG+1 calls
River 7:spade: Pot = $57
Hero checks(I cant see villain calling with a worse hand)
Villain bets $39
Hero?
My range here is literally going to be boats and potentially could turn a hand like TT/JJ into a bluff, but how often is this happening? We only need to be good here around 28% of the time to break even. I block AK/AQ of clubs, so hard for villain to have a better flush here unless he is flatting AJcc and lower, and also not raising the flop w the NFD. So really looking at boats and the rarity they turn a made hand into a bluff, unless villain is wider than we give him credit for. Anyone have an issue with folding this river? Also, I think checking the turn may be a considerable option if I wanted to have hands to protect my checking range(given this is one of my weakest flushes from these positions in this spot)
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