100NL confusing spot with nut blocker

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100NL confusing spot with nut blocker

Bovada Zone 100 NL 175bb effec

CO 3x, HERO Ac Kd raises to 9x

folds to CO who calls

Pot $16.50
Jc Ad 5d

CO ch/calls $9.75

Pot $36.00
Turn 9d

Hero bets $24.50 and CO raises to $70.00, hero calls

(If turn bet is a mistake...is a diamond turn a range check?)

Pot $176.00
River Ah

CO Checks

Hero...??? $85.38 left in effec stacks

What the heck is in villain's turn check/raise, river check range? Is there anything worse calling a river shove?

15 Comments

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mason barrell 8 years, 8 months ago

I like your call on the turn, we're getting almost 3 to 1 and are drawing to the nuts, never a fold here. River is a check back, my estimation is that villain will get to the river with either flushes, boats or missed bluffs, so if we were to shove the river, he would either fold a hand we beat or call with better. If he were to shove the river, getting over 3 to 1 I would call with this hand, he only has to bluff two combos for it to be a call at this price.

Brokenstars 8 years, 8 months ago

I'm assuming you're in btn since co ch/calls.

Flop/turn is fine. You can't fold turn since you have so many outs and he made it small.

as played I'm xing river. I can see villain playing 76dd, 87dd like this.

GunnJD 8 years, 8 months ago

Thanks guys. FWIW Snowie checks 86% though the EV of checking and jamming is the same.

In some player pools I could see this being a jam, which is in part what confused me.

Dddogkillah 8 years, 8 months ago

Have you ever used snowie ??
very good tool imo, need to take it with a grain of salt and determine were the player pool differs tho.

Kuduku 8 years, 8 months ago

What's your range pre? What do you think villain's range is?

Without that info all I can give you is generic advice which might be / might not be correct.

Overall your line seems ok but I'm pretty sure I'd check back OTR with your hand 100%.

OTR I'd valuebet AA, JJ AJs, A9s, A5s, and flushes with KdQd KdJd 7d6d etc.

AKd is probably close to bottom of my range. I think it has enough showdown value to check and not enough value to bet against villain's x/c range.

I just don't see too many worse hands in villain's range that play this way, and that now x/c river if we bet.
I think that most of his range that you beat is check-folding, and when he calls you will lose more often than you'd like.

Edit: Typos

GunnJD 8 years, 8 months ago

My BTN vs CO 3betting range is probalby something like 7-8%. I always have A5s and sometimes have AJs.

Def agree with your assessment. Turn polarizes villain's range so much.

Dddogkillah 8 years, 8 months ago

check back....
im trying to get to SD, OTT with out N redraw i am very un-happy about getting raised.
Flush coming in and board pairing does lower the absolute strength of your hand to some degree.
Mason nailed it on the head ^^

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