100NL AA shove river in 3b pot on 1card straight board?
Posted by StayPositive.
Posted by
StayPositive.
posted in
Low Stakes
100NL AA shove river in 3b pot on 1card straight board?
SB: 90.65
BB: 106.45 (Hero)
UTG: 104.87
HJ: 149.76
CO: 136.85
BN: 101
BB: 106.45 (Hero)
UTG: 104.87
HJ: 149.76
CO: 136.85
BN: 101
Preflop
(1.50)
(6 Players)
Hero was dealt
A
A
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to 3, BN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to 10, CO calls 7
UTG folds, HJ folds, CO raises to 3, BN folds, SB folds, Hero raises to 10, CO calls 7
Flop
(21.50)
7
5
J
(2 Players)
Hero bets 12,
CO calls 12
Turn
(45.50)
6
(2 Players)
Hero bets 25,
CO calls 25
River
(95.50)
4
(2 Players)
Villain plays 27/27 over first 25 hands. New screenname, so could be either a fish or new reg /whatever.
I think flop and turn are pretty standard.
On the river, I dont really see that many 8x in his range other than 88 (6#), 78s (3#), 98s (4#) so 13 combos, plus he could have all the sets in his range which is another 12 combos, I dont reckon he would raise them OTT. Thus, he has a shitload of Jx or TT, 99. which could maybe hero me because Im not perceived to valuejam big pairs here and the BDFD busts.
Do you think there is value in a rivershove at all against a somehwat unknown? I have 59$ left.
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These are the results I got from what I thought of as a reasonably wide range:
Board: 7s5dJh6d4c
CO : 58.89% { KK-QQ, 88, AhAc, JdJs, JdJc, JsJc, 7d7h, 7d7c, 7h7c, 5h5s, 5h5c, 5s5c, T8s, 98s, AcJc, Jd8d, Js8s, Jc8c, AhJd, AhJs, AhJc, AcJd, AcJs }
BB : 41.11% { AdAs }
As you can see, even against sets, TPTK and overpairs we are at 40%. Its best to check/call depending on the opponents bet sizing.I think suggesting he has sets in his range as the normal seems a bit strong. I think if we check what do we think he will bluff? Will many players at these stakes just check the river down with a pair for showdown?
The hand could definitely play better as a bet. I mean what if we bet in such a way that we'd call that amount and we feel he won't bluffraise us?
I think the opponent could definitely slow play some sets here, for instance Jacks might not feel there's any value in a raise on the flop, and when they see a double barrel on the turn, as it helps quite a few hands in the opponents range, they might feel they could be behind to something like 89 and just call, so its a definite possibility that they could slowplay a set.
The problem I have with betting here is our stack size. We only have ~$60 behind and as the pot is $95 the only bet size we have here is to shove (any time we bet less, our opponent will likely raise us all in, and we'll be committed to call), and to a bet of $60 were not going to fold out any hands we're behind to, we would only fold out hands we already beat.
I agree that there won't be many hands that he'll bluff, but if the opponent bets out say $20, that would likely be small enough to call, but I agree, most times when the opponent bets it will put us all in and we will have to fold.
too thin IMO, you may get hero'd once in a while but i think most of the time they will fold and on the times they do call they will show up with an 8 or a slow played set.
so you´re XC or XFing river?
probs XF because i dont think he would turn a J into a bluff and i doubt he would float twice with 8/9 , 9/10
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