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100NL 3bet pot, overpair and NFD on monotone

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100NL 3bet pot, overpair and NFD on monotone

SB: $100 (Hero)
BB: $183.70
UTG: $100
HJ: $87.90
CO: $177.75
BN: $42.50
Preflop ($1.50) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt A A
UTG raises to $3, HJ folds, CO folds, BN folds, Hero raises to $10, BB folds, UTG calls $7
Flop ($21.50) 4 9 6 (2 Players)
Hero bets $12.60, UTG calls $12.60
Turn ($46.70) 4 9 6 J (2 Players)
Hero bets $22.20, UTG calls $22.20
River ($91.10) 4 9 6 J 8 (2 Players)

Bit lost on all streets here, is bet-bet-shove too thin? If so, which street should i be checking?

Villain is relatively unknown, but seems like a weaker player playing 35/24 across 86 hands. Had called 2/2 3bets before this one.

I don't really know what im expecting to be called by when i shove this river, but it still just feels like the best play. I bet the turn fairly small so i guess his range could be a bit wider than usual, making a shove more attractive.

Thoughts on all streets?

10 Comments

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PhisyFishy 10 years, 5 months ago

I think KK 4bets pre a lot, even in these positions. So i'm just hoping he has QQ basically, which makes me think value jamming can't actually be good? My initial instinct is that it is a jam, and thats what i did in game, but i'm not convinced it's actually best on this runout.

UnKnownWon 10 years, 5 months ago

I'm curious of how you think your villains view your play in general and what your 3b and your agg factors are. For me I find that most people are calling multiple streets here with one pair hands assuming that I'm barreling with Ah/Kh/Qh a massive amount of the time. Most are too fearful of a tough river spot to flat turn with set or a low flush. They're checking back one pair hands otr too often if we check. I also don't think they call the turn bet often enough with no pair hands (especially since we have the Ah) and then barrel the river after bricking enough to make an xc optimal.

I'm loving the flop as well as the run out and getting called by many lesser pairs on the river. I prefer the river not to be a heart for sure. I bet a little less than 2/3 ott, then jam river.


PhisyFishy 10 years, 5 months ago

I have no history with this villain, and he is likely a recreational player meaning that he won't be adjusting his strategy much based on my perceived tendencies. Against regs, i'll definitely consider my image and history but I don't think it really applies here.

I think betting close to 2/3rds on the turn is a mistake, due to effective stack sizes by the river. I bet around half pot and had 55 into 100 to shove on the river which is already a bit small. Actually, against a fish this is probably fine, but as a balance I think smaller is better.

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