100 NL Zoom - TPTK River fold

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100 NL Zoom - TPTK River fold

Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players) BN: $143.64
SB: $100.00
BB: $100.00
UTG: $113.73 (Hero)
MP: $136.41
CO: $100.00
villain is a reg 27/19 over 255 hands in my current database. I know him more as an MTT player though.
Preflop ($1.50) Hero is UTG with J A
Hero raises to $3.00, 2 folds, BN calls $3.00, 2 folds
Flop ($7.50) 3 7 J
Hero bets $4.43, BN calls $4.43
Turn ($16.36) 3 7 J 8
Hero bets $9.68, BN calls $9.68
River ($35.72) 3 7 J 8 T
Hero bets $15.05, BN raises to $40.73, Hero folds

This is probably a standard spot but I still like to hear about my sizing and everything. I felt in the moment b/f on the river is the best line. He doesn't really get here with much air. I felt with this line I get the most value from KJ/QJ. These are the only hands I can really beat here. I guess given that there are so much hands he can have here that beat me, maybe there could be a case for c/f the river. It just feels super weak to me to c/f TPTK here. But we are beat by 33,77,88,99,TT,89s,JTs,T9s,Q9s,K9s,A9s. Don't know if he really flats all these hands pre but on the BTN it certainly seems possible.

9 Comments

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PhisyFishy 10 years, 3 months ago

xF seems best to me. He has a tonne of better hands than AJ on this river and few which are worse (and even fewer which are worse and still call). I think nearly everytime he calls hear you are beat.

Also your sizing just seems weak, and so he is more likely to play back at it i think.

JoINrbs 10 years, 3 months ago

I'm not sure we're meant to be betting this turn with any hand, villain's range seems very strong. x/c turn and x/c bricks seems like it should be a better line to take given my opinion of our ranges.

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 3 months ago

I don't think AJ has three streets of value on this texture. I'd check OTR to x/c against most bet sizes

Rapha Nogueira 10 years, 3 months ago

bcuz he can bluff since your bet bet check range is capped

x/f is ok, but he has very few 9x on his range (9combo J9s/98s/T9s) to make this a fist pump x/f.

he should be raising J7s/77/33 prior to the river, also. I don't think his range is super strong and he can raise 2p OTR for value since your bet bet bet range is uncapped. I guess he turned smth into a bluff on this one. specially because you split your range with this river sizing

SPrince 10 years, 3 months ago

Yeah river seems too optimistic, x/f better.
Floats probably raise turn, youre gonna have some give ups here so dont expect him to vb weaker Jx too often or turn it into a bluff.

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