100 NL co srp shoudl I vb river COvB?
Posted by egcornish
Posted by
egcornish
posted in
Low Stakes
100 NL co srp shoudl I vb river COvB?
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players)
MP: $102.50
CO: $113.85 (Hero)
BN: $197.70
SB: $114.52
BB: $174.57
UTG: $103.30
CO: $113.85 (Hero)
BN: $197.70
SB: $114.52
BB: $174.57
UTG: $103.30
villain has a 4% cold call, and a 8% 3 bet.
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is CO with
K
A
, , ,
Flop
($7.50)
K
8
5
,
Turn
($16.08)
K
8
5
8
,
River
($39.12)
K
8
5
8
7
,
should I vb here? considering his insanely low cold call I was thinking he might not even have a hand like KJ, in which case I beat KQ, and lose to 55 88, but I wasn't sure if he has KQ every time (he could sometimes 3 bet). perhaps there could be some A8s and 87s type hands as well?
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Yes and 4% is more likely to just be low-middle pairs + suited broadways.
River definitely a bet given we bet Turn.
I think x/c T x/c R is another option as well.
Im always triple barreling this runout unless villain is a real big nit.
or a really good reg, no?
I think that we need to check our whole range on this turn vs really good aggro regs, or start bet calling and bluffcatching rivers with one pair hands, which is always an...adventure I guess:)
I think we should just triple. If this were bvb or btn v blinds I would be more likely to be checking the turn 100% but in this spot I view it as a complete blank, as he is going to have hardly any 8x hands in this spot. If he raises I would just fold given it is kind of easy for him to run into bd diamonds here and we dont hold any diamonds.
I think x/c turn does pretty well protecting our x/folding range, he also could valuebet himself KJ KQ on this runout
Flush got there and there's also a few 8x to beat you. How likely he is to call your bet with a worse Kx (which you also block) is also uncertain to make things slightly worse. The last thing is you provided his pre-flop relevant stats however you didn't mention the sample size nor whether it's for a COvBTN scenario or overall stats - these things can make a huge difference here.
I think x/f is actually fine and is likely to be the best option - what villain doesn't have is bluffs. His entire range is either value or showdown value far too strong to bluff with.
I agree villain doesn't have bluffs here, but couldn't he be thinly valuebetting
? I mean would you valuebet KJ-KQ in villain's shoes? I wouldn't expect many 8x in btn flatting range here but lots of KT-KQs, some 99-TT. I think a blocking bet around 1/3rd pot doesn't do too bad here
I think it's likelier(?) to induce a spazz (which I dont think we want all that much) than a call.
And no, Villain should never vbet less than AA here.
I make a small bet here around 1/3d pot.
I'd either thin vbet/fold or XF. Readless, I like a XF a little more.
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