100 NL AK iso raise gone wrong
Posted by scubatim84
Posted by
scubatim84
posted in
Low Stakes
100 NL AK iso raise gone wrong
Blinds: $0.50/$1.00 (6 Players)
BB: $171.77
UTG: $135.17
MP: $98.20
CO: $100.00 (Hero)
BN: $89.45
SB: $101.15
UTG: $135.17
MP: $98.20
CO: $100.00 (Hero)
BN: $89.45
SB: $101.15
UTG is a 52/4 typical loose passive fish. Button, who is 33/18, and BB who is 45/12, likewise appear to be loose passive fish although button we're not sure on.
Preflop
($1.50)
Hero is CO with
K
A
, , , , , ,
Flop
($14.50)
2
4
K
, , , ,
First mistake I think was betting here. I'm not opposed to betting out 3-way, but if we do, I think it needs to be with the intention of folding to a raise from a loose passive fish since they have TPTK crushed. Button is tough though because his stats are closer to a reg than anything else but he appears to be more of an aggro fish. I observed him 4-betting A9s, he has raised the flop bet with an overpair or less and no draw and he does play draws aggressively. He also likes to limp and then call a raise with suited trash, so he's either an aggro fish or a very bad reg. Still, raising 3-way is less likely to be a bluff so I could see him calling and then raising with something like Ac3c except we have the Ac so that's out. He can really only have 22, 44 or perhaps 3c5c, so he's repping very thin here. We decided to peel since we do have the Ac, and can put a lot of pressure on villain if the turn is a club, but actually the fact we do have the Ac I think makes it more likely villain has value since he can't be raising with the NFD. If we assign a range of 22,44,3c5c to him, we are just totally crushed vs. that range. Maybe he's spazzing out with a hand that has little to no equity like K7 but I don't think he does it often enough for our call here to be profitable.
Turn
($62.50)
2
4
K
J
, ,
Our call on the flop puts us in a pretty gross spot on the turn. The reason I decided to call is no obvious draws came in, and with our SPR being approximately 1, we pot committed ourselves by calling the flop raise. I understand that villain is an aggro fish, and maybe he's bluffing us, but I think it's far less likely he made that raise as a bluff 3-way. I think if we were heads up perhaps this play would have more merit but I think this was just a case of us getting stubborn in a spot where we should have snap mucked to the flop raise.
River
($193.40)
2
4
K
J
Q
Final Pot
CO
lost and shows a pair of Kings.
BN wins and shows three of a kind, Deuces.
BN wins $181.40
Rake is $5.00
BN wins and shows three of a kind, Deuces.
BN wins $181.40
Rake is $5.00
Loading 11 Comments...
Against loose player I tend to bet this flop and I probably don't fold vs the raise.
And I'm absolutly not sure it's good but I probably fold turn.
If we use the blocker theory if we have a doute, this is the AK we can fold
These comited story often I don't like it.
I feel it's often a good excuse to make borderline call.
But maybee I fold to much because nl30 and 50 bluff less.
Just my advice and not sure it's good, difficult spot for me.
yeah I agree would bet bigger otf tho, not folding to his raise and folding the turn
I can get behind a bigger flop bet say $10 for 2/3 but I don't see how it's good to call his flop raise if we're just planning to fold to a 2nd bet on the turn anyway when it's a brick for all the draws.
Yeah as above prob betting flop bigger and finding a fold ott.
I do think your analysis sounds a bit results orientated and add to that you included the results which isn't a good idea(hide it), that can really color one's opinion about a hand.
Good idea Lion, will keep the results out of future HHs for that reason. So say we bet $10 on flop to size 2/3 to deny correct odds for draws to call, and he pops it up to $32 or $34, I think this is just setting money on fire if our intent is to call flop only to fold ott. If he has a bluff, he may figure with one more shell when he jams for 2/3 pot on turn which is roughly what it would be I believe it will get through and if he has value he's definitely jamming. Given what we have specifically, the likelihood of villain being on a draw is not very high anyway.
Given that villain seems to be fishy, this is really a spot where I tend to avoid the "theoretical approach" and I really focus on timing tells, betting sizing and really the overall "gut feeling" of this hand.
Hard to get away from this on the flop though, given that villain might even value raise worse here sometimes.
Do not feel however that fish really takes this line with a FD unless steam is coming out of his ears...
so I change my mind and if we think a bit more on villain's image, range and the fact that he's basically committing by raising this much in a 3 way pot I think we can find a fold otf. I think his range will be narrow here since from experience I don't consider him to be capable of running a bluff with something such as 5c6c especially 3way with two people left to talk like this. So I think we can give him 44,22 and KQs, KQo. What range do you give him otf scuba? btw there is a mistake with the sizing of your iso in the hh because btn called only 4$ and BB 3$ and you raised to 5$ (?)
I ran it trough snowie and it says CHECK after BB's check btw...
I think maybe is because we don't need to protect against the flush and we have a blocker for the straight... (?) so this has to be the perfect combo to balance a check range in this spot (?)
also how BB raises to 28$ otf but you only call 12$? can you fix the hh? he raised to 20$ instead of 28$ and overshove the turn didn't he?
snowie says call or fold to his over shove ott is 0 EV for both decisions... lol so fish accidentally made a GTO play (?)
so the best play here theoretically would be to x/c otf and x/c ott...
as played and considering he raises to 20$ instead to 28$ and over shove ott is an easy fold ott
as played considering he raises to 28$ otf we can find a fold right there
Hey David,
A player had posted, so I increased my iso by 1 BB to compensate for that. Villain can't have KcQc here since Kc is on the board, so maybe he has KxQc but it wouldn't make sense to raise with 1 club. My range I've given him is 22, 44 and 3c5c since only a combo draw makes sense to raise here since we block the NFD. Ac3c would also make sense but due to us having the Ac that draw is removed as well. We do block most of his draws with the Ac and it's unlikely button would call as wide as 3c5c anyway to an open raise even IP.
I don't necessarily like checking the flop because I want to get value out of KQ, KT and flush draws, but Snowie is probably taking into account us having the Ac so we're not as worried about the flush coming in as we otherwise would be because we still have outs even if they do hit their flush. I don't think WPN is supported for HHs so the call amount being off I guess is highlighting that fact.
I do agree when he raises us to $28 on the flop we're just dead in the water and should fold then. Checking would be optimal because if we adopt a x/c line then we can get bets out of weaker kings, maybe middle pairs such as 99 or TT and we can make a play for pot control if they do have a set because if flush comes in on turn we can apply significant pressure by check raising their turn barrel if we feel convinced they do have a set and otherwise check calling it down to get bets out of a much wider range.
I like it. So do you feel Snowie is worth the money? I've been using a live coach but I'm starting to wonder if Snowie wouldn't be better for me on ACR, particularly since they're so aggressive on that site.
yeah I didn't give him 3c5c cause I didn't think he would call that pre also I think considering he's like an aggro fish that he would call with that hand instead of playing it correctly since they (I think) play their aggression backwards
yeah the hh is messed up a lot, the flop and river pot especially don't add up according to the previous action
I couldn't say if snowie is worth the price since I'm only a fish bro, another member asked me the exact same thing via pm and I answer this:
I think is worth the price if you play 50nl for example or above, anyways I think the important aspect of any method is understanding why it says what it says, so with that in mind any piece of poker software ("gto" or not) should be worth the price (flopzilla, pokerranger, piosolver, etc) if one knows how to use it to improve
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