10 NLZ , AA UTG , do i ever fold his river raise?

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10 NLZ , AA UTG , do i ever fold his river raise?

UTG 246 BB (Hero) ( Ah As)
MP 121 BB (Villain)
CO 295 BB
BU 111 BB
SB 129 BB
BB 100 BB

UTG (Hero ) Raises to 3BB
MP Call 3BB
CO Folds
BU Folds
SB Folds
BB Folds

POT = 7.2 BB

FLOAP:
2d Kh 8s

Hero : Check
Villain : Check

TURN:
2d Kh 8s 4c

Hero : Bet = 3.6 BB
Villain : Call = 3.6 BB

POT = 14 BB

RIVER:
2d Kh 8s 4c 2s

Hero : Bet 16.1 BB
Villain : Raise 51.0 BB
Hero : Calls

Villian wins with 4h 4d.

I have no information on this player. When he raises shold i shove river vs 10 NLZ Unknown? I guess folding to his river raise is out of the question?
Or dose just calling in that situation lead to less variance in general?

6 Comments

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RaoulFlush 4 years, 8 months ago

First of all: im not in love with your check on the flop. I want to bet 100% here, so i esp want to go for a BBB on most runouts with AA. You are missing tons of value here.
As played: Dont hate the call.
We underestimated our hand quite a bit and Villain shouldnt have any 2P in his range.
3 things suck a bit:
1) We block AK that might go for nut value here
2) We block A3/A5 that might bluff here
3) There is no FD on board that bluffs
But i guess we are too high up in our range vs a pretty narrow valuerange to justify a fold....

RaoulFlush 4 years, 8 months ago

Its more of a cbet than a lead...
This board favors our range heavilly and so i would cbet here with a 100% frequency. Rule of thumb: The higher the betting frequency, the lower the sizing. So a sizing between 1/4 and 1/3 of the pot would be standard.

Jeff_ 4 years, 8 months ago

vs mp reg you can autocheck any board pretty much after 3x open and flat. His range suppose to incredible tight maybe TT+,AJs+.
vs recs who will flat off suited things pretty much betting or checking are fine options. Checking to induce bets and betting for value.

Think you can overbet even bigger as long as Kx not folding and vs raise pretty hard but considering value/bluffs you have to call. You are chopping with AA which can play this way

DNegs98 4 years, 8 months ago

So I don't think you want to jam here because at 10nl this raise is probably going to be more polar than it should be as I don't think players will very often play AK in this manner as they will most likely 3B it pre or bet it 100% on the flop when checked to and I don't think they have any other thin river raises in their range that you can get calls out of.

I like your line and personally even though it's low stakes and the river raises are always nutted it just seems very suspicious and I'm likely to at least look them up with a hand like this although maybe you shouldn't and you never see a hand that isn't 44/A2 here. There are a few adjustments that you can make though, against someone who never checks back KJ+ on the flop you really just want to play a polar and aggressive turn overbet stabbing range and this hand should be in there, only playing a 2/3 sizing is fine in theory but when you nodelock for someone that isn't mixing with strong hands then you can start piling money into the pot vs a check.

There's also a more theoretical adjustment that may be exploitatively wrong - basically on the river you block their x back range which is mostly ace high and you unblock their value betting range which is essentially Kx so you really want to put in a x/r with this hand (you can actually consider x/r all in with this hand but it might be too thin in practise). I say that this might be exploitatively wrong because if you come up against players that will make nitty x backs with marginal value or who call too light vs your line then you may get more money on average into the pot by betting but I just wanted to highlight that there is this option available to you and you can also take this line with some bluffs sometimes if you think people are nitting up when you find aggression in weird places (A4/A8 tend to make the best bluffs when you get here with them because you can x them as they have sdv but their sdv is minimal vs a bet and they block villains strongest hands whilst unblocking the folding range). You can also use this knowledge rather than to adjust your own play to understand that because your villains will miss some of these thin x/r opportunities and probably will not find the right bluffs as they just x/c a pair that you can just bet the river a lot here for thin value when x to and just fold to the raise but also that their betting range will probably have more value hands than it should and therefore they need to be more aggressive in finding bluffs so you can consider overfolding in that line as well.

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