10 NL ZOOM line check

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10 NL ZOOM line check

BN: $9.70
SB: $14.17 (Hero)
BB: $25.58
UTG: $10.47
HJ: $24.67
CO: $10
Preflop ($0.15) (6 Players)
Hero was dealt K A
UTG folds, HJ raises to $0.30, CO folds, BN raises to $0.80, Hero raises to $2.40, BB calls $2.30, HJ folds, BN folds
Flop ($5.95) A Q 3 (2 Players)
Hero bets $4.20, BB calls $4.20
Turn ($14.35) A Q 3 T (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $4, Hero calls $4
River ($22.35) A Q 3 T 7 (2 Players)
Hero checks, BB bets $3.50, Hero calls $3.50

villain stats 15/10/6%3b 100% cb 50% tb

5 Comments

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BigFiszh 11 years, 9 months ago

Wow, this is ridiculously weird. Purely from the stats of this guy I can´t really imagine any hand in his range that would bet turn and river that you have beat. Purely from his preflop-call I´d put him on JJ, QQ, AK, maybe KK and that´s it.

Had he bet big, I´d say "easy fold, this is QQ", but with this small betsizes I almost expect to see AK.

gb600 11 years, 9 months ago

Since you bet so big otf, i think you should just jam the turn...

I would bet much smaller otf like 2.25~50 or looks weak but just chk with intention of c/c one strt and giving it up..

lofigr 11 years, 9 months ago
If we sum hero's bets on two 1st streets we can see that sum = 2,4 (pf) + 4,2 (f) and hero was aggressor...
At that moment hero slows down having behind 14,17 - 6,6 = 7,57.
Now villain quickly calculates in microsec: "Aha, how much I'll bet two next streets that I am 100% sure he calls my AQ, AT, QQ.. let me see... I'll bet 4 on turn and the rest 3,50 (not 3,57 for hero's AI ! ) on river... And he did it exactly that way....
In my opinion - nothing weird going on....
The fact you stopped c-betting i.e. putting last 7,57 into 14,35 on turn gave him sign either u have Ace (weaker than his on this board) and that you call his "small & weird" bets on next streets as you were not "that strong" to continue with "standard sizes c-bet(s)" OR he bets small hoping you'll call 'his AQ' with hand like KK - which is "bluffcatcher" here for "his QJhh" as you think....
I think he had AQ here as he might 4-bet you with queens even from BB, which I personally wouldn't do, but who knows....
Quot capita tot sententiae
ElmosMyBff 11 years, 9 months ago

I think this situation is pretty transparent actually. When I read through the hand -before I saw your post of his holding QQ- I immediately put him on exactly QQ. This is of course a very vague statement so I will walk you through how I deduced this logic; Looking at his stats while also assuming his positional disadvantage preflop to the initial raisers we can assume he is not playing hands like (suited connectors, pairs under JJ and AK/AQ suited) so we immediately we know his hand falls within JJ, QQ, KK, AKo/s, AQs, we can also assume that JJ, AA, and AKo would reraise as our villian would want to isolate these hands HU and not play them in a multi way pot. Now we can take his range and put him on QQ, KK, AKs and AQs.  So his hand is very transparent preflop.

Your post flop decision becomes a little more difficult as we have deduced his range and lead out with a c-bet, when he calls this c-bet we know we are never ahead of his range unless he is beyond bad and calls with KK for suckout equity. So given the hand we put him on we lose vs AQ, QQ, we chop vs AK but beat KK. The turn changes nothing (he never shows up with kjo or s), when you give up pot control he is and was on the flop solely looking to extract the most value from you without getting you off your hand. The turn is a clear check-fold situation based on the board.

If you look at relative vs absolute hand strength in this situation, although your absolute hand strength may be strong, your relative hand strength given the villain's stats and line he took is very weak.

As stated above, your losing two situations -VS. AQs and QQ-, chopping with AK, and KK has 15% suckout equity vs you with one card to come.

AQs + QQ = -2.0
AK = -0.10 (rake loss)
KK = + .85
totaling a -1.25 loss

This is by no means exact math, it is just a quick way on the fly to deduce what makes sense as an EV play long term on a very very basic scale, it will also help you make the right play.

When making tough decisions, as poker players, we have to look at what makes sense not as/just "in the moment poker play" but what makes sense as a winning player who is regularly make good decisions based on deduced logic, using the given information we have.

Poker is an incomplete science, one that we have to reason with and come to terms with by making hand shakes on incomplete assumptions.


~~Sean Wilson~~

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