10 NL AQ Two Pair facing pot sized river bet
Posted by TrynaGrind
Posted by
TrynaGrind
posted in
Low Stakes
10 NL AQ Two Pair facing pot sized river bet
PokerStars - $0.10 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
Hero (MP): 119.4 BB
CO: 208.3 BB (VPIP: 29.46, PFR: 25.89, 3Bet Preflop: 12.77, Hands: 113)
BTN: 132.4 BB (VPIP: 22.83, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 11.27, Hands: 193)
SB: 118.1 BB (VPIP: 45.56, PFR: 22.22, 3Bet Preflop: 4.65, Hands: 90)
BB: 86.6 BB (VPIP: 38.89, PFR: 13.89, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 36)
UTG: 100 BB (VPIP: 25.16, PFR: 20.34, 3Bet Preflop: 8.12, Hands: 657)
SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 1.5 BB) Hero has Qd Ac
fold, Hero raises to 3 BB, fold, fold, SB calls 2.5 BB, fold
Flop : (7 BB, 2 players) 7s 9c As
SB checks, Hero bets 4 BB, SB calls 4 BB
Turn : (15 BB, 2 players) Qh
SB checks, Hero bets 9 BB, SB calls 9 BB
River : (33 BB, 2 players) Kh
SB bets 30 BB, Hero???
What are your thoughts on what I should do on the river? Is SB ever bluffing in this spot? What's in SB's value range?
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I expect, given stats we have, SB vaĺue range to be mostly JTs,JTo, but also some overplayed KQs,KQo,K9s,K7s. His bluffrange something like T8s,68s, and XsYs missed fd hands.
There could even be value in raising but this sizing looks more like JT or a missed draw, so I just flat.
so thought process is that due to high VPIP, villain is recreational which means he could be overplaying some hands that we beat (weaker two pairs mostly).
That combined with having some bluffs in his range (mostly missed flush draws), that makes this a call.
To play devils advocate, my argument here is that imo, rec players tend not to lead-out bluff the river (esp for pot size) after check-calling twice, especially on this kind of board that smacks my range (even though rec players may not think these exact thoughts, they still know that I'm probably pretty strong here). Because of this, I think the villain is almost never bluffing here and either has J10, and some of the time, overplayed two pair.
Even if you are confident thet your average rec player at 10nl does not bluff here often, I think you should call anyway. I expect worse for value enough of the time.
And you risk getting exploited if you fold a hand this strong.
The price might be good, but if you ask me this is a fold. He is almost never bluff donking in such a spot. He might overvalue KQ, but that is pretty much all you beat, and even if he does overvalue it kinda doubt that he donk POT size with such a hand.
He could also have (beside TJ ofc) AK, and slowplayed 77,99. I would not worry about getting exploited by rec players who x/c F+T donk POT river.
P.S. I think you should have bet larger on both flop and turn vs such a player.
I really don't think he has KQ combos here except for exactly KsQs. JT makes perfect sense, as does Ks9s. I think most players at 10NL would c/c with two pair with KQ (and K9). The Ace tends to freeze them.
I wouldn't call the River here, and when I do I expect to be shown the nuts.
Thanks Cozacu and filthynines
I do agree with those thoughts. While folding AQ risks being exploitable, I think that's not an issue so much at 10NL.
@Cozacu Also agree with the bet sizing issue, I have noticed my standard bet sizes are smaller than most ppl so defs need to work on that.
I did fold the river here, so sorry no confirmation what villain had. :)
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