X/R or X/C in a Turbo

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X/R or X/C in a Turbo

Blinds: t10/t20 (9 Players) MP+1: 1,500
MP+2: 1,490
CO: 1,470
BN: 1,470
SB: 1,480 (Hero)
BB: 1,550
UTG: 1,440
UTG+1: 1,600
MP: 1,500
Preflop (30) Hero is SB with 7 8
UTG folds, UTG+1 raises to 70, 5 folds, Hero calls 60, BB raises to 280, UTG+1 calls 210, Hero calls 210
Flop (840) K T 9
Hero checks, BB bets 420, UTG+1 folds

BB squeezes pre, I would assume he has a decently strong range here, UTG+1 is what I'm not really sure about but I think that once he calls, I'm getting too good of a price to fold. exactly 3:1 with a hand that can flop really well and can have great implied odds against a strong range. Hit a fantastic flop for myself, almost certainly a favourite against UTG and for the most part I'm never worse than a coin flip with BB. What is our plan here?

The way I see it, were never folding here. We can check/call here and see the next card and x/shove if we hit because, fortunately for us, pretty much every scare card improves us to the best hand. Or we can check/raise or check/shove here and pick up some fold equity here?

3 Comments

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tscaranto 9 years, 7 months ago

The way was played, I just donk shove OTF.
Fold equity + Flush draw equity ( with 2 cards that complete a str fls as a plus), I see no point in check that hand and take the risk to see a blank turn.
Of course Fold PF is the way to easy game early after the squeeze

13douchebags 9 years, 7 months ago

yeah pretty close spot, because we have almost no FE on the flop, however because we have so much equity on the flop i would x/r allin. Even a tiny bit of FE makes this worth it. Napkin math: Say our equity with checkraise is 1480+1480+210=0.45(-1200)+ 0.45(1480+1480+210)+0.1(1480+210)=1056
and x/c yields say he stacks off 3/4 of the time you x/c:: 0.66* -420 and 0.255(1480+1480+210)
and 0.085
(1480+420+420+210)= 746

So even if you lose more when you x/r it makes up for it because you already have so much equity (guessed ofcourse). And if we x/c we have to fold turn a lot if we miss or make a call close to EV0 if villain shoves. So based on these assumptions its a clear x/r. but change the numbers and it could get different ofcourse.

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