WSOP $1500 PLO Bubble Spot
Posted by trondeez
Posted by
trondeez
posted in
High Stakes
WSOP $1500 PLO Bubble Spot
WSOP $1500 PLO
On Bubble... Literally. (Don't 100% know this at start of hand, but know its very close. Board updates during hand)
118 left. 117 paid.
15 Minutes left in the day. (But the floor has told me we will probably play until the bubble breaks.)
Min Cash is $2480
I have 25bb in mid position.
Early open from chip leader (120bb) to 2.2bb.
Shorter stack (18bb) nitty guy flats.
On me (25bb) with AAJ2ss
I 3bet to 10bb. Chip Leader calls. Nit Folds. (Pot is 23.5bb.) Flop KQ4dd. He leads all in. (I have no diamonds)
When I 3bet, Floor announced that we were hand for hand. As I am stalling on his lead shove, some players from my table tell me that someone from another table has gone all in and is out, so we are in the money. I try and get the floor to confirm the bubble break, but they will not answer me. Finally, after about 7 minutes, the floor makes me act, I call and lose. (Obv.)
I have no problem calling here, especially if I am in the money. I only need like 26%, but I am not sure if this is correct in terms of ICM or other MTT considerations.
I also think I can just fold pre.... but ughhh, that's tough.
I end up chopping the min. cash with the other guy who was out before me. ($1240)
So what do you guys think?
Loading 5 Comments...
Fold on the flop if you like money.
Just my 2 cents:
My understanding is that you would have considered the possibility of getting eliminated on this hand, as you 3bet this hand preflop. It's not a significantly high possibility given that you have AA and you have the nit covered (plus people play tight on the bubble, especially live), but it's still there. From this, I am assuming that min-cashing isn't the most interesting or important outcome for you. That said, after you 3bet and take the flop, I don't think there is any other play than calling, for a couple of reasons.
a) Someone said you are already ITM, and although you couldn't verify it with the floor, I think it is plausible. When live players tell you such a thing, it's usually because they have been paying attention to that. In which case, you will get some money (either min cash or chop it) even if you call and lose.
b) If you fold here, you will have 15bb left, with which you can't really do much even after you slide into the money. To be fair, it's better than having a 15bb stack in NL because you tend to have more FE in PLO tourney (due to the fact that there is no ante, and you can't openshove in PLO), but you won't really get far without getting some hands / winning some flips.
c) If you call and win, you will have a 50bb+ stack and will be in a healthy shape throughout the next few level. Not only are you ITM, but you can now aim for a really deep run. KQ4dd is not the greatest board for you and you are probably behind when he does this, but you have a pretty decent equity (you have a gutter!).
d) We are far from where the "real money" is, so I wouldn't worry too much about ITM math.
e) The nut worst scenario is that you are actually not ITM, you call and lose the pot to go home with $0. Sure, sometimes this will happen and it's gonna hurt, but in long run you make more money by calling here and trying to double up.
The only time I will consider folding this on flop is when min-cashing means a significant $$ for me and I don't want to risk elimination. However, if that were the case, I wouldn't have 3-bet this hand preflop for obvious reasons. Like I said above, if I 3bet this hand pre, that's because I am aware that I can just go broke in this very hand and I don't really mind that.
Cliff:
Call. By calling, you can either double up and shoot for a deep run, or still min-cash or get a part of it. If you were worried about these scenarios, you could have flatted preflop and there's nothing wrong with it.
ps. I'm sorry that you had to chop the min cash, but imo you made the correct play.
If the chipleader isn't folding to threebets i'd just call preflop. Bubbling is a disaster here and preflop equities are so close that there will be a lot of flops were you get it in w/ 40-60%. If he is folding to 3bets. I'd 3bet and reluctantly call it off otf. He is much more likely to shove draws or Kxxx, Qxxx than sets/two pair etc given that he knows you have AA and expects you to shove this flop near 100%.
Agree with Sam re: preflop. I think flop is super close and interesting. I'd guess we have about 45% vs his leading range. It's a clear +cEV call but given ICM considerations I think it might be a fold? I'm not an ICM expert though and could be off on this.
ran a rough sim and depending on tweaking variables (how wide he's opening, if hes ever jamming hands that currently beat 1pr etc) you have between 46-50pc, assuming no bdfd since you didnt mention one and its a pretty significant factor. taking the midpoint and giving you 48pc equity, it looks like calling is around 10.5bb+cEV. ICM isnt my strong area, but I have a hard time believing that it impacts the situation enough to turn this into a fold esp given the decently high probability that your worst case scenario is no longer $0 (one person at ur table might decide to be an idiot and tell you someone busted when they haven't, but once it becomes a group of them, its very likely theyre simply excited to have cashed in a wsop event and are telling you the truth).
i also agree with pretty much everything midori said, except that i think being short in NL>>>being short in PLO, which also argues in favour of calling. in plo mtts significantly more flops are seen than in nl in spots where equities are a lot more tightly grouped, so giving yourself some margin for error is imo pretty crucial.
finally, you need to make sure that your decisions gel together as part of a cohesive overall gameplan, and 3b pre/folding this flop is the exact opposite of that. you either flat pre and play a flop with tighter stackoff requirements, or you 3b pre and take your equity edge vs the opener/fold eq vs the flatcaller (which is extremely high given he's shorter than you and will prob be falling over himself to fold and hope you bust), recognising that by doing so you are, as phil would say, "entering into an agreement" to get the rest of your money in a significant majority of the time.
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