Would you fold KK pre-flop in this spot on the bubble ?
Posted by MedrickG
Posted by
MedrickG
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Would you fold KK pre-flop in this spot on the bubble ?
PartyPoker 8-max, NLHE $22 Buy-in (1 re-entry used) / $6K Gtd Bounty tournament ($5.50 on each player at the start)
Blinds 4500/9000, antes 1100
Close to the bubble burst (45 players left, 40 ITM)
Hero dealt Kc/Kh with roughly 19BBs (27th on 45)
Only pre-flop action goes:
- All-in UTG w/ 3 BBs ($14,43 bounty on his head)
- All-in CO w/ 14,3 BBs ($22 bounty on his head)
- Reshove Hero BN ($15,12 bounty on my head)
- SB & BB stack me with 53,5 BBs & 86 BBs, SB reshove, BB fold
The board comes 10h / 8d / Qc / 8h / Jd
UTG had 8/5s
CO had A9off, won the pot with a Q high straight
SB had AA
& we bust at the 42nd place, 2 spots away from the ITM about $24 ($1700 to the 1st without bounties)
Obviously being this close to the bubble without a large stack means folding almost everything, even most of premiums.
But with the 2nd best hand in poker & the chance to take $36 of bounties plus advance to the ITM stage as one of the potential chip leaders, the shove seemed clearly EV+ to me.
It was the late part of my session around 4am & to be honest I was probably not playing my A game, so I completely forgot to check SB & BB stacks sizes covering me (I had just changed table on this hand) before going all-in.
I feel like this is just a setup but what do you think ?
Considering the ICM & the bubble potentially bursting a few minutes after this hand with already 2 short stacks all-in, would you fold KK pre-flop there ?
Many thanks
Loading 5 Comments...
I'm a little unclear of your stack size here but I'm fairly certain this was +EV. I ran it through HRC, making a few assumptions on stack sizes and bounties and it looks to about +7BB. But I don't know much about bounty tournaments.
Definitely fold, gii is terrible, you are just a huge EQ favourite vs two stacks you cover whose combined bounties are worth more than the mincash. And on the rare occasion that one of the blinds overcalls you will be ahead of their range as well.
But the 1% chance that someone behind you will wake up with AA and bust you makes this a clear fold. /IRONY
GeeTeeOh You say this is a clear fold, and this is what worries me about how I'm studying. It seems like we came up with two totally different conclusions. On top of learning the wrong way, I don't want to be giving bad advice, (although I do always try to put my "I'm a newbie" disclaimer on it.
If this wasn't a bounty would you still consider this a fold? I'm guessing you're saying it's a fold because of the bounties AND the bubble. Is that right?
I guess I should have made it clearer, I have edited the post now. Doing anything else than getting it in is absurd. If he would have won the hand he would have never even thought of posting it. This is a perfect example of results oriented thinking.
Dammit LMAO. Sad part is I re-read it to make sure I wasn't being a moron. But I was running on very little sleep 2 16 hour work days. Anyway, thanks for clarifying. I'm going to sleep now...
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