Weird ICM spot 8,80d 2x-turbo
Posted by nst
Posted by
nst
posted in
Mid Stakes
Weird ICM spot 8,80d 2x-turbo
CO: 5045119
BN: 2370416
SB: 1865152
BB: 3899167 (Hero)
HJ: 856146
BN: 2370416
SB: 1865152
BB: 3899167 (Hero)
HJ: 856146
Preflop
(315000)
(5 Players)
Hero was dealt
9
9
HJ folds, CO raises to 420000, BN folds, SB folds
HJ folds, CO raises to 420000, BN folds, SB folds
So do we just jam here? I hate flatting vs a villain like this cause we get so many ugly turn situations even if the flop is fortunate for us. Am I completely retarded to even think about anything but jam? Feels just so puky.
Pay ladder as follows:
7700
5700
4300
3100
2250
Loading 3 Comments...
When he folds to your jam your stack is worth 5493.
When you double through him your stack is worth 6556, and when you lose vs him it is worth 2250.
Now in order to justify shoving it clearly must be profitable under the most favorable assumptions, that is he opens wide and he doesn't call AQ/TT. (ICM wise you want him to fold even is he holds only one overcard!)
Say he opens 60% and calls with AK/JJ+, that is a 3% range, hence 95% chance he folds. Your equity when called is 33%.
EV= 95%(5493) + 5%( 33%*6556+67%*2250) = 5218 + 0.05*3671 = 5402.
Which is higher than the 5317 you started with.
Now to make it less favorable assume that he calls AQ+/TT+ and opens 40%.
He calls a 4.68% range and you have 37% equity when called. Meaning he folds 88% of the time.
EV=88%(5493) + 12%(37%*6556+63%*2250)= 4850+0.12*450=5300.
Still slightly better than folding but less than the 5317 you started with.
So it is clearly +EV to jam, but not max EV. I would advocate calling or 3-betting small instead of shoving, depending on how you think he would play back. If you flat you should x/r a lot of flops.
Note: I disregarded split pots in the equities, so there will be some slight rounding errors.
I realized that for some reason this HH converter on R1O does not show antes (or more likely I did something wrong). Given there's more money in the pot the EV of shoving would be higher and that extra money in the pot also makes our SPR smaller postflop if we flat. Would you say this is more of a reason to shove preflop or just call and why? I take it that this is hugely dependant on the villain's tendencies postflop and whether he makes bad overcard calls for us like AJ/AQ or even AT (have to remember it's just 8,80d 2xturbo so we can't assume he would play optimally and also the history we have with him that he might be tend to do ICM catasrophes) but still would be nice to hear your thoughts about it.
One more thing about ICM calculating: even though everyone is shallow, I assume we can still exploit these players a bit (though the Russian guy makes our life a bit harder when he plays back at us on our left). What kind of $EV differencies we need to have between folding and making a play that either can cripple us or that has potential to get us knocked out of the tournament in order to take that spot? Of course you cannot know how big of an advantage I have over these players but let's say you were in the situation. For example, if we have a spot that has risk of busting 30% if we jam, but ICM wise shoving would be X$ more favorable than folding and flatting is not an option, what kind of number should X$ be (percentage of our stack worth would be more appropriate I guess?) and how would that change depending what kind of villains you are playing against and your positional situation in the table?
With antes the EV of the shove goes up, you saw that losing your big blind cost you around 70, so if there is little over one half big blind in ante you gain 40 more if he folds. The thing about this situation is that he and you are the big stacks and 3 players have between 4 and 11 big blinds, so the pressure on them is much higher than it is on you.
So you should prefer to keep stealing their blinds and avoid eachother. However if he is stealing more than you and he tries to enter pots with you this positive effect is gone. So if you think he respects you and shuts down when you call here or 3-bet small you can play smallball with him. If you think he is not then shove this hand all day long, but never fold since shoving is always much better.
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