Weird hand against Dominik Panka in 4 way pot at IPT Malta
Posted by 3stajl
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3stajl
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High Stakes
Weird hand against Dominik Panka in 4 way pot at IPT Malta
Day 2 of IPT MALTA, about 200 players left, 153 paid
blinds 1500/3000, ante 400
I played on this table for about 1,5h and seemed pretty tight due to lack of cards and 2 biggest stack on my left.
Everyone have between 30-80 blinds.
Preflop:
UTG fold
UTG+1 - Stefan Jedlicka (acitive with the biggest stack on the table about 240k blinds) raise to 7000
MP1 fold
MP2 Dominik Panka call (with the stack of 98k)
HJ fold
CO fold
BTN (seemed ok with 180k) call
SB fold
BB - HERO about 115k - with Qh2h call
First of all would like to know what is your calling range in this spot on BB (and if it include Q2s couse now i think it could be a fold especially there is no weak player in the pot and it is quite close to the bubble). But even if it should be a fold would be grateful for thoughts on the river as played.
FLOP:
[ 9s 2d 8s ] (34,100)
everyone checked
TURN:
[ 9s 2d 8s 2c ] (34,100)
I bet 19k (i suppose i could bet little bit less but would like to hear your opinion on sizing also)
UTG+1 fold
Dominik Panka calls
BTN fold
RIVER:
[ 9s 2d 8s 2c 7c ] (72,100)
HERO check
Dominik Panka bets 38k
My thoughts:
I would value bet against player which i don't know much about or some weaker player. However i think Dominik has quite thight range calling MP2 with 33bb (and i think it would be something like 88-TT and suited broadways like T9s, JTs, QJs, KJs, KQs, AJs, AQs and maybe some AQo and QTs KTs so i don't see many hands i can get value from (3 combination of T9s) becouse i think he would bet TT OTF. Maybe it seems weird but i actually think my trips is more of bluffcatcher (against missed draws, assuming he check some of them OTF) and i loose to JTs (4 combinations and ocassionally 88-99 which checekd flop, but wouldn't give him too many of these (maye 1 combination of each, having in mind that he has only one player to act behind and and not so dry of a flop) so it would be 6 cominations of better hands.
The question is how often does he check the flop with FD with this stack size and how often does he bluff them OTR especially with this sizing? if he would check FD OTF half of the time and bet them OTR about 2/3 of the time it would be 2 combinations of missed FD and 6 combinations of better hands. if those assuptions would be correct i have +EV call.
Would like to know if you agree with this conclusion or maybe i missed something.
Thanks in advance guys
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I think we have to call here since we checked. Are we going to check fold with such a strong hand? Not on this card IMO. The only hand that makes sense we're afraid of is J10. If he has that or a flopped set/turned boat then it's a cooler and so be it. We bet the turn from the blinds after the flop checks around and now we check river. Put yourself in his shoes. IMO our line looks pretty weak. We'll still have 16bbs or so if we're beat which isn't great but still leaves us a few moves to make. I call.
I think you shouldn't exclude he could be value betting TT, T9s, and even 87s if he is not that tight as you mentioned because UTG+1 has a weaker range than normal (chip leader + active). Also, if he is indeed tight, you could even add JJ to his PF range and to his value range otr. As ralphykid mentioned, your line became so weak, that he could try to thin value bet overpairs here.
At the same time, I would only consider 3 combos of JTs, since it's likely he would either bet on the flop or raise ott with JsTs. So I think it's a call here.
Thanks guys for replies
I have to say i wasn't even thinkig to check/fold on the river. I know my line seems weak and i agree he would value bet TT and JJ and 98s, but not 87s.. i suppose you meant 98s (if he have it preflop). But do you really think he would check TT or JJ on the flop in 4 way pot?? In my opinion he could check 98 or T9 on the flop becouse he block hand that he can get value from. But like i said i wouldn't even give him 98s preflop. If i would give him 98s preflop and TT, JJ not betting the flop it would make it value bet for me OTR.
The most important factor is how often does he check JTs, TT, JJ, T9s, 99, 88 or broadway flush draws OTF. And i suppose i would like to know your guess on this question.
And still would like to know what would you call preflop on BB.
Multiway pots.. still most mysterious issue.. ;p
Greetings
"The most important factor is how often does he check JTs, TT, JJ, T9s, 99, 88 or broadway flush draws "
On the broadway draws, OTR, I would exclude AsKs (probably 3bets PF), QsJs, QsTs (that is only a gut shot + not the nut flush OTT on a paired board) and KsQs, KsJs, KsTs (which are not even combo draws OTT), so this leaves with only AsQs, AsJs and AsTs (that are calling OTT): 3 combos
JsTs and I mentioned, would only include 3 combos
TT and JJ I would say he checks at least the ones with Ts (Js) that blocks hands he would get value from (T9s and FD), so 8 combos
T9s is almost always checking OTF and calling OTT, imo : 3 combos
I don't think 99 and 88 are ever checking on MW boards with a FD after the PF aggressor checked.
Additionnally, I would consider he checks 98s for pot control OTF : 3 combos
And definetely would add 87s on his PF range (as much as 98s), I would assume he cals once OTT, but I change my opinion and agree he wouldn't try to value bet those OTR, because he loses to any 9.
So, OTR : Bluffs : 3 combos
Worse Value Combos : 14
Better Value Combos : 3
So, I think it's a call ;)
Hello
Preflop
I guess in your hh antes are 400 . With an open and 2 calls we have very good odds. I would defend pretty wide here around 80 % of my hands.
Flop Did Button has some tendancies of stabbing when checked to him? That could maybe include some premiums preflop hands in Pankka's checking flop range.
as played river , I think once we checked our hand is too strong to fold although due to your sizing turn and his check flop I don't see so much bluffs or value cut
I think he might sometimes bluff with some A highs: AT AJ.
I don't either see so much value hands in his range.
Our range look pretty weak.
I call.
interesting hand I d like to know the showdown ;)
Hi, thanks for sharing your thoughts.
Ante was 400 ofc. fixed.
About Button: I agree this is quite important factor however i saw only one hand he played and it was prettty std. So no reads that he like to stab when checked to..
Maybe Dominik played with him before and know more than me..
i called and Dominik showed: 99 for a full house
#johnyarmless
Thank for your reply!
Suppose you meant 6 combos of TT or JJ (with spades). That would give 12 combos of worse value bets.
Additionaly I agree he shouldn't have JsTs (becouse he would probably stab OTF as a combo draw).
But if he would have so many worse value hands which i excluded before (maybe wronlgy) than it is value bet for me OTR and fold to a jam becouse i doubt he would bluff the river after my second bet when im not capped and still can have plenty of strong holdings.
I have to say as i think more about this hand i also think its quite unlikely that he would check FD OTF than call on paired board OTT and bluff OTR so this would make even bet/fold a better option OTR for me (and i would choose little bit lower sizing so i would lose less).
Yes definetely agree that b/f is a better line otr for you.
I think he played too passive otf and got lucky.
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