WCOOP Main Event 2010 ($5200) - KK - Call or Fold facing all-in?

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WCOOP Main Event 2010 ($5200) - KK - Call or Fold facing all-in?

UTG1: Jon Doe: 0
UTG2: SCTrojans: 78225
UTG3: D0ntAstic: 116233
LJ: VILLAIN: 78775
HJ: Buttmunch OO: 47525
CO: slv458: 56912
BN: The Prescott: 533032
SB: SHIPP ITT: 306662
BB: Klairic: 68884
UTG: Tjollerboy: 146805
Preflop (6000) (9 Players)
Klairic was dealt K K
Tjollerboy folds, SCTrojans folds, D0ntAstic folds, VILLAIN raises to 78275, and is all in, Buttmunch OO folds, slv458 folds, The Prescott folds, SHIPP ITT folds, Jon Doe posts big blind, Jon Doe calls, Jon Doe folds, Jon Doe calls
The "John Doe"s here aren't here... It was folded to me in the BB.
Hi guys, this is the most memorable hand of my career. It was Sep 27, 2010, and I was playing in the WCOOP main event (I had a free entry from getting Supernova Elite). Why was this hand so memorable? At this point, I was literally on the bubble, and tanked longer than any other hand in the history of my online career (super big time bank… my guess is I tanked for over 5 minutes).

Ok, so, I have KK in the big blind, and someone open ships. What’s the big deal? Well, there was a lot going through my mind when I was deciding whether or not to call. I’m still not sure about it. I thought this would be a fun hand to share to re-examine what I was thinking and feeling, and get some insight into how I could’ve handled it better. Another thing to note is that I really don’t know much about tourneys, so adding anything tourney related to the decision would be awesome.

Read – I haven’t seen my opponent play a hand yet. Literally, he’s 0/0 at this point over about 30 hands. I’m assuming that this is a good indicator that he doesn’t want to go broke before cashing.

First thought – he’s open shipping 20bbs. Not THAT much, but to me this is super weird. Why is such a nitty player shoving so much? What’s going on here?

What else is going on for me? Well, I would like to cash… although the money isn’t life changing to me or anything. I can’t say it didn’t affect my thought process, but I think I was pretty good at minimizing that.
I’ve checked, and all of the other tables have finished. Everyone is waiting for me, and no one has gone out this hand. If I fold, I’m guaranteed to get the 8k+. If I call and win, I’m looking to have a decent shot at a deep run.
So, what is my opponent’s range for shoving here? Part of me thinks it could be just AA. Part of me thinks it might NEVER be AA, and only be something like JJ/QQ/AK. Ugh. How do I decide which is more likely? Can I REALLY fold here? I mean, it’s POCKET KINGS!! Crap. What the #$(@ do I do. Time is ticking! I have no idea how to figure this one out… and yet I have to. And, it’s potentially a really big $$ decision.

QUESTIONS! What would you be thinking about? Is this just a snap call with KK? Does the bubble + extreme perceived nittiness make it a fold here? What else is going on that I’m missing?

Results will be posted later!

11 Comments

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Jason Lavallee 12 years, 3 months ago
before anyone beats me to it, if you fold this you should quit poker etc

it's obviously a call, now after that you just gotta break down how much the mincash means to you, and that's a question only you can answer
Lee Spradling 12 years, 3 months ago
It just comes down to how much the 8k means to you. The fact that it is the bubble is the only reason it's a tough decision. Any other point in the tournament and its a snap call. Im sure villain realizes its the bubble as well, so i think there is a high probability he has Aces. Only because it is the bubble and you've seen him fold 30 straight hands, we have to think what else is he waiting for but the nuts. He could have QQ/AK or even the same hand as you. KK. However, i think he's just a nit folding his way to a min cash but wakes up with Aces on the bubble.
Michael Gazonda 12 years, 3 months ago
Yeah, this is why I had such a hard time with this hand... I have no experience with how being on the bubble changes things, but it seemed like it mattered to my opponent at the time.
Kevin Brown 12 years, 3 months ago
I just don't see the argument honestly.

(For the sake of these figures I actually looked up the 2010 WCOOP Main because I was fairly certain this was right, and it was)

This is the richest tournament in the history of online poker. I know $8,000 is nothing to sneeze at and is a nice result, but I can't stress how little that has to mean to you when everyone at the final table is guaranteed 6-figures and there's $2,278,000 up top. MTT poker is all about end game. You also got in on a free-roll(sorta), so your eyes should be up top, you've been given a free chance to win all that money...this really can't be a decision.

I'd also say this: 0 hands in 30 doesn't mean he's waiting for AA. It means he's waiting for a big hand. QQ+ and AK is the top 2.5% of hands which means if he's waiting for those he's only playing 1 in 40...and KK heavily beats that range. If we ever think JJ can make it's way in(which is still possible even though he's folded 30 in a row) it's a massively +EV spot, but even without it's a very +EV spot to get you to 40bb and give you room to maybe make a run at $2.3M rather than $8k.
Michael Gazonda 12 years, 3 months ago
It's not an argument at all... it's an opportunity for discussion. You're right about looking towards the top here, but I don't know how important that really is. If my opponent's range is just AA, I should fold. I'm not saying it is exactly AA, but I felt it was worth discussing.

Villain has so much room here to raise small and fold that I was having a really hard time understanding how that would change his range here. If he wants to min-cash, has JJ/QQ/AK... why not min-raise?

I'm not looking to ask what's 8k worth, I'm looking to find what my opponent's range actually is here... I realize that I should call if it's +EV.
Tom M 12 years, 3 months ago
I would say QQ and AKs and AKo are in his open ship range and I think we have to call. If he's a timid nit he's probably not jamming lower pairs but he'd jam QQ for fear of raising, being called, and seeing an Ace or King flop in my opinion.

He could also jam JJ but timid nits are probably more likely to raise/fold medium pairs and then fold all the way to a mincash.

I'm not sure he'd just rip AA. I could see him doing a 3x or 4x instead, especially in 2010.
Dan Quinn 12 years, 3 months ago
ICM implications are pretty hard to estimate in spots where the field is still > 1 table, and incredibly tough in this spot specifically, but Kill Everyone has some great stuff in it on bubble factors, and estimated the 2006 WSOP money bubble factor at 1.36. (bubble factors increase your required equity to call it off in tournaments to account for the fact that the chips you gain if you win are less valuable than chips you lose when you don't)

In this spot it's 9 handed and IIRC there is a 500 ante. So you're calling 64,884 to win 75,384. Your pot odds are 1.16-1. You should call in a cash game if you have 46% equity versus his range. Given a bubble factor of 1.36, you should call in this spot if you think you have 54% equity versus his range.

I haven't played MTTs for a year so I'm pretty rusty at this stuff, but there's some great ICM work in the Pro Training area. Jono and Espen are both total ICM bots.

Regarding his actual range, I have no clue, but funny story: I played in a WSOP $1k where I sat beside a wonderful older lady who asked me every orbit if she could fold into the money. Eventually she doubled up (I forget how) and I told her that she was safe. A couple hands later the button open raised her BB and she showed me KK and folded. She had him covered by a mile. :D
Joe Nelligan 12 years, 3 months ago
I would just call, but to even entertaining a fold I would have to look up his handle and find out what his average stake is and if he is a lifetime winner or not. If he had like a $5 ABI and had been an obvious satty player than maybe you could make the argument that he is only playing AA here, FTW I would still call. Do you realize how sexy QQ looks after folding for 30 straight hands.
Saša Zorc 12 years, 3 months ago
This post tilts me so hard...

From the information available to you, you cannot possibly conclude that his range consists of just AA.

Let us examine what we know:
1) Opponent folded 3 orbits in a row
2) Opponent open shoved 20bbs on bubble

Given that info, It is still much more likely that his range is QQ+,AK or even wider. Think the other posters here argumented that very well. Also significant is that you are ignoring some important information available to you, such as:

3) This is a 5k donkament, your opponent is not likely to be a nitfish
4) You could easily find out what kind of a player your opp is by checking PTR/OPR

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