WaSOP High Roller 1100€: 3 left
Posted by MrSneeze
Posted by
MrSneeze
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High Stakes
WaSOP High Roller 1100€: 3 left
High roller of the Wallonie Series of Poker in Namur, Belgium. 1100€ MTT, 70 entries. We played day 2 yesterday from 1pm till 4am, so pretty exhausted to play day 3. We're only 3 left, 8 were paid. We decide to deal, first take 20K, second and third 12.8K.
Opponents are belgium pro Pokerstars Christophe de Meulder and belgium cash game reg Guy 'Jumbo' Goosens.
Blinds are 15K/30K 4K ante, we all have roughly 1.2M. I cover both my opponents a little bit. So we just started playing. Both my opponents respect my game. I've been the most aggresive player since we've been 6 left (yesterday thus), putting a lot of ICM pressure on Christophe. He's been relatively nitty, not going too much out of line vs me.
Here is the hand:
I open BTN Th7h to 60K, Christophe 3b 150K from the SB. He 3b me the hand right before BvB, I raised Ks8s and folded because OOP and because I felt he wasn't 3betting that light in general. Here I decide to call with position. Might be loose, but I like defending, especially live.
Flop comes Qd 7h 6s ; 342K in the pot. Christophe C-bet 125K and I call.
Turn 8h. 592K ; eff stack behind around 900K. Christophe tanks a big and bet 260K. I definitely believe (from a hand he played with 8 plrs left) that he's capable of exercing leverage. I mean, he's just good, been a pro for 5-6 years. We talked a bit after finishing yesterday, and he knows what he's doing + he knows that I know what I'm doing as well.
What's your action there? Without real ICM pressure, I don't think I can fold. But it feels close between calling and shoving.
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I would fold pre. If I am not wrong I played this guy online and he seems very tight, also. I open the BTN very wide 3 handed but this hand does not have the implied odds to play in this situation. To make this shove profitably you need some fold equity and I think you have almost none on the situation.
based on payout structure (where building a stack to increase the likelihood that you get first place money is rewarded) seems like it should be a shove. You should have lots of equity when called, and have some fold equity as well.
calling is better only if these two things are true
1) he will sometimes bluff shove our outs on the river
2) he will sometimes give up and check blanks and allow us to win with our pair of 7s.
After thinking about this hand for a bit, I agree with all of this.
great run Mr Sneeze.
Correct me if I am wrong here, but there is no ICM in play I thought?
this is effectively a winner take all situation? so if it is Chip EV+, then it is fine.
Yeah, I did not pay attention to payout structure, sorry. I would still fold pre.
I am sure that you should not fold much on this situation but T7s is not the greatest hand ever to call. The texture it makes the nut straight has very little implied odds and on three hearts boards I don't think a experienced player will pay you very little. You need to have some textures that have at least two high cards and also you can play on reverse implied odds situation sometimes.
I play very little OTB (around 50%) in tournaments in my life but 3 handed this hand against a nitty guy does not make much money in my experience. Surely I can be wrong but I usually choose at least one gappers.
shoving doesn't serve much of a purpose imo - hes never b/f better OTT and we beat bluffs......I like the defend provided your going to play well post
If I were to play a not-so-competent opponent on the tight side, I would always call this turn, and find shoving spewy.
Against a too-agressive player, I'm absolutely fine shoving and taking the fold equity, because he's barreling too wide (any gutshot or weak pair, possibly overcards as well).
Against an experienced, young and good player such as Christophe (we talked poker for a few hours the night before), my turn decision becomes very close. It seems that the better he is, the more he'll bet bluff appropriately on the turn with the intention of shoving river sometimes.
So what it comes down to is : how much FE do I really have on this spot, assessing the level of my opponent? Haven't done the maths, but with stacks and bets already in the pot, I get a fantastic prize on my shove, probably need 40% FE or something.
Ingame I thought of flatting and possibly bluffing some rivers, but they are actually very few I could credibly and successfully bluff. I guess a 5 is a good bluffing card, but what else? Didn't feel calling was great, if I had no other option than hitting my outs.
No ICM implication indeed. Considering how much equity I have, don't think I can make a (big) mistake provided I don't fold. Vilain is competent and aware of the concept of leverage, so he'll fold some of the time. If I call, I believe I can get vilain to bluff on some hearts, but don't expect to put so much money in on my other outs (the board will be 4 straight). Assuming vilain checks the river, I don't know if I should bluff (which cards would be good?), or just check back.
7h is both in your hand and on the flop. Please, correct the mistake. I suppose Q or a 6 on the flop is a heart, right?
I am fine with folding turn. Given your image I think CDM isn't expecting you to fold to his 3 bet pre flop. The flop is fairly dry so I don't think CDM is going to barrel with complete air here and I think almost all of his range either has us beat or has good equity against third pair. I think folding turn is correct.
Definitely never folding preflop to that sizing. Turn is super close, can't make up my mind. Benefits of jamming are avoiding making large mistakes on the river and making him fold hands that have 4-5 outs against us (maybe more if he b/f AT or KT). Benefits of calling are getting to play the river in position, potentially inducing bluffs when we improve, and potentially losing less or bluffing ourselves on scare cards that don't improve us (mainly 5o). I'm honestly not sure which option I prefer.
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