Value bet or check back river?
Posted by Tdogger88
Posted by Tdogger88 posted in Low Stakes
Value bet or check back river?
Blinds: t15/t30 (9 Players)
BB: 1,843
UTG: 2,283
UTG+1: 1,470
MP: 1,400
MP+1: 1,410 (Hero)
MP+2: 1,465
CO: 564
BN: 1,395
SB: 1,670
UTG: 2,283
UTG+1: 1,470
MP: 1,400
MP+1: 1,410 (Hero)
MP+2: 1,465
CO: 564
BN: 1,395
SB: 1,670
Very early in game, no reads against this opponent yet.
Preflop
(45)
Hero is MP+1 with
A
J
, , , ,
Flop
(225)
6
A
5
,
I think I made a sizing mistake here. What should I be considering here? If he has an ace, I'm not worried that it beats me. Because he has so few hands that beat me, do I size smaller to get value out of his marginal hands that are drawing very thin right now?
Turn
(525)
6
A
5
5
,
I'm not worried about 5x at all, very comfortable with another value bet.
River
(945)
6
A
5
5
4
Now we're out of position here ant the straight comes in. It's also the most likely straight that he has, if he decided to not raise flop (which he can do at least some of the time). Villain has one potsized bet left behind, if I bet here, am I isolating myself against better hands? Middle pocket pairs are very likely here, but am I getting called by 88-TT? I don't really have any of the straights and he for sure can, so getting raised is not something I'm super excited about, but I really do feel like I have the best hand. If I get it in here and lose, I'm essentially out of the tournament nowhere near the money, but I have a hard time thinking of hands that are going to call my bet that I still beat. I think I bet AQ, check AT, thoughts?
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