Turn+River bluff spot

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Turn+River bluff spot

UTG2: rajin_cajun7: 2943
LJ: f.t.d.: 3319
HJ: mestre_urubu: 6352
CO: pokersagor: 5208
BN: Loysh: 3849
SB: Showtime43: 1995
BB: ragAAAila19: 5920
UTG: sanex29: 3225
UTG1: easywithaces: 5265
Preflop (225) (9 Players)
ragAAAila19 was dealt K J
sanex29 folds, easywithaces folds, rajin_cajun7 folds, f.t.d. folds, mestre_urubu folds, pokersagor folds, Loysh raises to 337, Showtime43 folds, ragAAAila19 calls 187
Flop (749) 5 3 6 (2 Players)
ragAAAila19 checks, Loysh checks
Turn (749) 9 (2 Players)
ragAAAila19 bets 375, Loysh calls 375
River (1499) A (2 Players)
ragAAAila19 checks, Loysh bets 750, ragAAAila19 raises to 5208, Loysh calls 2387
Final Pot
ragAAAila19 has K J Loysh has A T ragAAAila19 wins 2071 , Loysh wins 7773
Hello runitonce. I would like to tell me what is your opinion about the way i played on turn + river. The tourney is 162 nighty grand which is pretty soft and my oponent was a pretty decent player, his stats were blocked but he was pretty nit. 15/11 after 50 hands and he was looking like a good player. i bet the turn cause i expect to have ax kq, and a lot of other hand which could bluff me if i check, and i won-t be able to reach the showdown. The board that came hits perfect my range when i call from bb, i can have all the sets considering that he was playing nity all 2 pairs, straight. My plan was to bet the river excepting A Q K or any heart, cause if he call me on the turn i belive could have AQ AK with heart or AJ AT with a heart or also maybe a4 a5, with A heart , and i except to fold
on a blank river
: On the river i can-t see why i should bet, cause i get called very often, from all aces, so i am checking and waiting for him to make a value bet with At+, but i don-t know for sure from what hands he could take value, but maybe a nine, or a seven, and i belive he will never could give me bet/call with AK on this board considering that i can have a lot of hands. i belive his best hand is a, a9. I am turning my hands very often into a bluff, and i belive is a very good board for me and i never have succes, is this a bad thing for me? Do i have to c/f turn and go on?
I also thought to a c/r turn, shove any river ( excepting any heart), but i don-t know how often he will bet with AQ AK with heart, and he to wait for me to make a c/r with 2p+.Thx

2 Comments

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Grayson Ramage 12 years, 2 months ago
I think the best play is to just c/f the turn, I don't really like betting when you don't have a heart in your hand. As played, I would c/f river. His hand looks a lot like Ax with a heart and I don't expect him to fold enough for this to be a profitable c/shove.
Dmitry Shkaev 12 years, 2 months ago
Just ask yourself, how often would you REALLY check-shove a flush in spots like this? Most likely (as in about 95% of the time) you will value bet the river strongly, probably all-in for maximum value (given opp's stack/pot ratio), since you want an ace to pay and not just have an easy showdown.

It doesn't make any sense to check and then push 2 pairs, sets or straights on the river, so you're repping only and precisely a flush (which is very unlikely after betting sequence). Because of this, your line looks like a rare fancy play or just extremely weak, and a pot-committed, short opponent pretty much doesn't have any fold equity here against a shove.

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