Turning Aces into a Bluff

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Turning Aces into a Bluff

Blinds: t30/t60 (9 Players) MP+1: 4,521 (Hero)
MP+2: 5,458
CO: 4,155
BN: 2,701
SB: 4,484
BB: 3,000
UTG: 1,705
UTG+1: 2,494
MP: 2,571
Preflop (90) Hero is MP+1 with A A
3 folds, Hero raises to 136, 3 folds, SB calls 106, BB folds
Flop (395) T 7 2
SB checks, Hero bets 166, SB calls 166
Turn (727) T 7 2 9
SB bets 313, Hero calls 313
River (1,353) T 7 2 9 3
SB bets 1,080, Hero raises to 3,899 and is all in, SB folds
Final Pot MP+1 wins 3,513

SB is a solid low-stakes reg, 19/14 over 1k hands. Flats 9% of the time on SB and he has 4% 3b on sb on around 100 hands.

I designed some bluff and value ranges for him, considering a reasonable SB flatting range, and then I calculated the value/bluff ratio to see if we could bluff catch profitably. Of course those ranges are really player dependent (his tendencies of check-raising flop, leading turn and a turn hand into a bluff river).

The point is, in game I didn't see many bluff combos as I saw after designing ranges. So I felt he had a value-heavy range with 2p+, then I used our nut flush blocker to try to force him making a big lay down.

What are your thoughts about that?

3 Comments

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eggsnmaple 6 years, 11 months ago

If you're going to bluff I guess it makes sense blocking the nuts. You are able to bluff catch but it seems better to win the pots he is willing to bet/fold river with 2pair+. .

tbettingen 6 years, 11 months ago

Given villain is a solid low-stakes regs his range might just be sets and, on occasion and less likely, JJ/QQ. I'm not sure if you'll get a low-stakes reg to bet/fold sets here (especially TT/77), and the profitability of your bluff just depends on how likely villain is to make such a big fold.

Although having the nut blocker here might help, I would assume that villain would rarely ever take this line with a diamond draw (maybe KQdd or similar?), making your blocker less valuable. Additionally, I doubt that villain would bet/fold any flush in his or her range here.

Richiegone 6 years, 10 months ago

I like the thinking but prefer this play when you have Handa like Aj with the Ad. With AA you are beating most hands that would fold apart from two pair.
With just A high you would profit far more from lots of his pairs + folding.

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