Turn decision mid stages of party $215 40k
Posted by Paul Senter
Posted by
Paul Senter
posted in
Mid Stakes
Turn decision mid stages of party $215 40k
None: HERRPP DERRPPP: 21334
None: HungarysHero: 7585
None: senterpied: 23715
None: Dustyourfish: 7540
None: MyMojoSoDope: 6832
None: Jack_Nap1er: 22531
None: Sure__shot: 13245
None: WishIcldFly: 11264
None: LMS_gotti: 18297
None: mjw_006: 7281
None: HungarysHero: 7585
None: senterpied: 23715
None: Dustyourfish: 7540
None: MyMojoSoDope: 6832
None: Jack_Nap1er: 22531
None: Sure__shot: 13245
None: WishIcldFly: 11264
None: LMS_gotti: 18297
None: mjw_006: 7281
Preflop
(0)
(10 Players)
senterpied was dealt
Q
Q
LMS_gotti raises 400, mjw_006 folds, HERRPP DERRPPP folds, HungarysHero folds, senterpied calls 400, Dustyourfish folds, MyMojoSoDope folds, Jack_Nap1er folds, Sure__shot folds, WishIcldFly calls 200
LMS_gotti raises 400, mjw_006 folds, HERRPP DERRPPP folds, HungarysHero folds, senterpied calls 400, Dustyourfish folds, MyMojoSoDope folds, Jack_Nap1er folds, Sure__shot folds, WishIcldFly calls 200
Flop
(1000)
6
Q
8
(3 Players)
WishIcldFly checks,
LMS_gotti bets 750,
senterpied calls 750,
WishIcldFly calls 750
Turn
(3250)
K
(3 Players)
WishIcldFly bets 1875,
LMS_gotti calls 1875,
senterpied raises 4200 to 6075,
WishIcldFly folds,
LMS_gotti bets 15252,
senterpied calls 12927
River
(39379)
T
(2 Players)
Final Pot
senterpied has
Q
Q
LMS_gotti has
K
K
LMS_gotti
wins 39879
Loading 19 Comments...
As played though, it is unfortunate is AK AQ and KQ make up a decent portion of his range here. We would expect him take this line with any of these hands. I feel that wish can have straight and flush draws as well as some weaker Qxs. He puts in a raise a decent amount of the time with any two pair hands on the flop so we ca n narrow his range to 1pair type hands or draws.
This means that raising the turn is fine as we are expecting LMS to hold a strong value hand a decent amount of the time and will be willing to stack off, since we have Wish on a weakish drawy holding we are expecting a fold on the turn. Kinda sick spot but i'm an advocate of the 3bet pre.
If you raise flop, and WishIcldFly cold calls it puts LMS_gotti in an uncomfortable spot, and gets more money in the pot now, allowing bigger bets on the turn.
If WishIcldFly is good aggro, and capable of check/raising light here with what he may perceive as a lot of dead money in the pot I prefer flatting.
Whereas if we raise flop I think we make so many hands fold that can try to barrel as a bluff or for value later in the hand. Also given my preflop flat I think this gives the ep opener more incentive to barrel as my likely hands would be smallish pairs/draws.
The fish can have any 8 or 6 that he is just as likely to make 2 pair or trips with than he is to catch a gutshot or flush.. whereas if i raise he folds everything bar good fdraw/2pair+. Also don't see the opener not barreling rags a decent % on the turn and over cards near 100%.
I see your reason for raising as my action could get killed and we are deep but I just don't see enough hands either player can continue with that i don't stack anyway. Would only see AA/KK/88/66/68(/AQ) and club draws continuing to a raise. Vs every hand that can improve to a worse but stackable hand or that goes barreling off.
- Would only see AA/KK/88/66/68(/AQ) and club draws continuing to a raise (9Ts?)
That's pretty insulting toward LMS_gotti, he's not that exploitable. So you don't have a flop raising range at all then? Seems pretty bad given your expected tendencies of LMS_gotti. Can't really say you raise as a bluff often because that's the kind of thing people catch on to quickly, and he would not be cbetting bad hands into you and a wild fish in this spot.
You noted "- Would only see AA/KK/88/66/68(/AQ) and club draws continuing to a raise (9Ts?)"
I'm curious, what else do you think LMS_gotti could reasonably continue with facing a raise from Senterpied on this board? It seems you noted it as something you didn't agree with, and i'm struggling to see much else he can continue with apart from some KQ, QJ
I completely get what you're saying re: keep the fish in the pot and let a fish be a fish. I just don't think this is the flop texture we want to do it with.
I don't think AK/AJ type hands c-bet as this flop is as close to 100% as possible to have hit one of the flatters. When he c-bets I'm raising for this reason. Plus, overcalls are never guaranteed and lots of turns cards will come that'll slow down the action far too frequently.
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