Trying to hold on with weak TP in Sunday Million

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Trying to hold on with weak TP in Sunday Million

Blinds: t150/t300 (9 Players) MP: 17,328
MP+1: 18,996
MP+2: 4,543
CO: 19,840
BN: 40,008
SB: 11,620
BB: 20,512
UTG: 23,230 (Hero)
UTG+1: 23,923
Preflop (450) Hero is UTG with 8 9
Hero raises to 660, 2 folds, MP+1 calls 660, 5 folds
Flop (2,130) 7 5 8
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 950, Hero calls 950
Turn (4,030) 7 5 8 7
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 2,450, Hero calls 2,450
River (8,930) 7 5 8 7 3
Hero checks, MP+1 bets 14,896 and is all in
Hero?

This hand happened in the mega Sunday Million recently. Flop and turn are standard, the tricky part is the river. I would expect villain to 3bet JJ+ for sure, probably TT+, and I block 99 which would be his best flatting overpair. He can't have many 7x combos: only 2 combos of 76s and 2 combos of 87s. I also block 88, and the board pairing leaves only 4 combos of 77 and 55. I don't see him showing up with 64s or 69s. I don't block hearts of course, but his bet sizing is super polarizing, and there are plenty of bricked draws he could have like 9Ts, JTs, and J9s, most of which I don't block. Plus he knows I'm capped, so it would be a perfect board to put max pressure on me. Then again, it's pretty early in the SM, so I don't know how likely a huge bluff is at this stage. Thoughts?

3 Comments

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Douggyfr3sh 4 years, 4 months ago

I think you did a good job of summarizing range interaction and I think a call is fine based on the nature of what you block and unblock. Sometimes villain is going to show up with a flush, but it seems like the range vs. range interactions on this runout are just right to pull off a big bluffcatch. PLUS, you still have 14bb to battle with if you lose :)

Goodfellahh 4 years, 3 months ago

hi ! Not sure if i will open a lot 89s from utg, might be too thin, but fine in soft tables, makes sense what was said , the thing is, i dont know if theres a lot of bluffing going that early and bluffcacthing becomes worse. OTF , x/r would look good i think , thoughts about that?

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