tricky hand in NLH FT / did I lack courage to call ?
Posted by kerbernes
Posted by
kerbernes
posted in
Low Stakes
tricky hand in NLH FT / did I lack courage to call ?
NLH FT table / 5 left / I have the 2nd stack
Winamax - 15000/30000 NL (7 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4: http://www.pokertracker.com
Hero (BTN): 19.09 BB
SB: 44.58 BB (VPIP: 14.29, PFR: 12.77, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)
BB: 13.35 BB (VPIP: 28.87, PFR: 11.35, 3Bet Preflop: 10.87, Hands: 144)
UTG: 17.29 BB (VPIP: 21.97, PFR: 13.60, 3Bet Preflop: 9.09, Hands: 135)
CO: 13.69 BB (VPIP: 23.29, PFR: 16.90, 3Bet Preflop: 16.00, Hands: 76)
5 players post ante of 0.13 BB, SB posts SB 0.5 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB
Pre Flop: (pot: 2.17 BB) Hero has Jd Qs
fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.1 BB, SB calls 1.6 BB, fold
Flop : (5.87 BB, 2 players) Js 2h Tc
SB checks, Hero bets 2.5 BB, SB calls 2.5 BB
Turn : (10.87 BB, 2 players) 2s
SB checks, Hero bets 5 BB, SB calls 5 BB
River : (20.87 BB, 2 players) 6s
SB bets 13.91 BB, fold
SB wins 34.78 BB
Even if SB never 3bets (3Bet Pre = 0 in HUD), we can exclude from his calling range: 99+, AJ+
Flop : JT2 his calling range: 22 JT Jx Tx A2s (made hands) K9s Q9s 98s A2s (draws)
Turn : 2s his calling range: we can remove JT which x/raises flop and A2s which x/raises turn given the very drawy board.
remain: 22 Jx Tx Ks9s 9s8s (Qs9s not possible because I block Qs)
River : 6s his all-in bet range : values 22 Ks9s 9s8s / bluffs AsT (blocker max spade) and maybe KsJ and KsT (2nd blocker max spade)
so only 3 value combos vs 3 to 7 bluff combos (3 AsT + maybe 2 KsJ + 2 KsT)
With these river odds, should I have called ?
Anyway I folded given the ICM pressure and also the fit or fold profile of the opponent. But I have a lot of doubts ....
Loading 2 Comments...
Tough spot, readless I'm folding too, your line looks really strong and in my experience, people very rarely use this line as a bluff, especially someone with those stats.
The question I would ask is, was this player abusing his bigstack correctly to apply ICM pressure vs 4 midstacks? Seems fairly unlikely or his stats would had probably gone up by now. I would consider calling river if I had seen that he is aware of the pressure he should be putting on.
Vilain seems too much of a preflop calling station to me, so I would say it's probably more a call than a fold otr (if not its quite close), specially when you block some of his flushs with Qs, anyway, its interesting and worth doind some work on using at least flopzilla.
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